by Claude Chendjou

PARIS (Reuters) – Wall Street is expected to rise slightly on Wednesday and the European stock markets, apart from London, are in the green at mid-session, the trend being mainly towards a wait-and-see attitude before an intervention by Jerome Powell, the president of the Reserve American federal government (Fed), and the publication of new economic data across the Atlantic. New York index futures suggest an opening up 0.47% for the Dow Jones, 0.31% for the Standard & Poor’s 500 and 0.64% for the Nasdaq. In Paris, the CAC 40 advanced 0.55% to 7,296.2 points around 12:20 GMT, the stock market index continuing to benefit from the stability of the “spread” between France and Germany despite the probable censorship in the evening of government of Michel Barnier.

In Frankfurt, the Dax gained 0.99% after setting a record at 20,223.84 points. In London, the FTSE, penalized by the health sector and profit-taking in basic resources, declined by 0.29%.

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index rose by 0.25%, the eurozone EuroStoxx 50 by 0.83% and the Stoxx 600 by 0.40%, the indices being driven mainly by distribution (+2.03% ) and new technologies (+1.37%), in the wake of the Nasdaq record.

Beyond the political context in France, macroeconomic indicators in Europe, published early this morning, confirmed the difficulties of the Old Continent with producer prices (PPI) in the euro zone which started to rise again in October, while that the PMI index measuring business activity in the bloc fell sharply in November.

The market is now awaiting American data including the ISM for services, industrial orders and especially the ADP survey on private employment, a prelude to the official monthly report on the subject scheduled for Friday.

This report, which includes the evolution of salaries, allows investors to anticipate the trajectory of Fed rates while the President of the American central bank, Jerome Powell, is due to speak this Wednesday at 6:45 p.m. GMT. The Fed’s Beige Book, which serves as a working basis for its monetary policy committee, is also due to be published at 19:00 GMT.

Traders are currently pricing in a nearly 74% chance of a 25 basis point Fed rate cut this month, up from a chance of more than 66% a week earlier, according to CME’s FedWatch barometer. VALUES TO FOLLOW AT WALL STREET

Salesforce jumped 10.7% in pre-market trading after beating Wall Street’s expectations on Tuesday evening in terms of quarterly turnover, while raising its annual sales forecast.

Marvell Technology climbs 12.4%, as the chipmaker announced that it expects fourth-quarter sales to exceed expectations.

VALUES IN EUROPE Stellantis takes more than 1% after the car manufacturer refutes having chosen the current financial director of Apple, Luca Maestri, as general manager.

Casino gained 4.84% after the announcement of an agreement on the sale of a real estate portfolio of 69 assets to the Les Mousquetaires group.

Orange lost 2.84%, Morgan Stanley having lowered its recommendation on the telecoms operator from “overweighting” to “online weighting” due to concerns about France.

Campari advances by 3.56%. The Italian spirits group announced that it had appointed Simon Hunt as managing director, replacing Matteo Fantacchiotti, who resigned in September after only five months in the role.

AstraZeneca lost 2.66%. HSBC analysts lowered the laboratory’s price target to 13,720 pence.

RATES French government bonds are generally stable on Wednesday before the vote in the French Parliament on motions of censure which could put an end to the government of Michel Barnier.

The spread, that is to say the difference in yield between the German Bund and the French ten-year OAT, appears at around 84 basis points (bp), compared to 90 bp on Monday.

“Overall, we believe that current spread levels already reflect some pessimism regarding the French credit outlook, although this should not preclude further widening in the event of unfavorable market conditions and potentially increased liquidity. weakest in the market by the end of the year,” said Benjamin Schroeder, strategist at ING.

In the United States, the yield on ten-year Treasury bonds rose by 3.5 bp, to 4.2556%, after having increased five basis points the day before, with the strengthening of the dollar.

CHANGES The euro stalled on Wednesday as the vote on the motions of censure in France approached, losing 0.07% to 1.0504 dollars.

Analysts say a departure of Prime Minister Michel Barnier could worsen the political crisis in the euro zone’s second-largest economy and could further weigh on the single currency, which has fallen sharply since Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election. .

“Adverse political developments in France continue to represent a downside risk for the euro, even if they are not necessarily sufficient to trigger a new phase of decline on their own,” write MUFG analysts.

Sterling is virtually flat at $1.2672 as Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey reiterated that gradual interest rate cuts are likely over the next year .

The US dollar gained 0.16% against a basket of reference currencies.

The Australian dollar, down 1.17%, fell during the session to its lowest level in four months due to the slowdown in economic growth in the country.

The South Korean won rebounded with President Yoon Suk-yeol’s decision to lift the martial law he had imposed. The deputies presented impeachment proceedings against him on Wednesday.

OIL

Oil prices continue to strengthen ahead of Thursday’s OPEC+ meeting. Traders expect the organization and its allies to announce an extension of production reduction quotas, while geopolitical tensions remain unabated.

Brent rose 0.23% to $73.79 per barrel and American light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) rose 0.14% to $70.04.

MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS ON THE AGENDA FOR NOVEMBER 4:

COUNTRY GMT INDICATOR PERIOD PREVIOUS CONSENSUS

USA 1:15 p.m. Private employment (ADP survey) Nov. 150,000 233,000

USA 3:00 p.m. ISM non-manufacturing index Nov. 55.5 56.0

USA 3:00 p.m. Industrial orders Oct. +0.2% -0.5%

(Writing by Claude Chendjou, edited by Kate Entringer)

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