(News Bulletin 247) – This article, with open access, is produced by the stock market analysis and strategy research team at News Bulletin 247. To ensure you don’t miss any opportunities, consult all the analyzes and discover our portfolios by accessing our Privileges area.
The absence of government, or at least a new government, will not have weighed on the Paris Stock Exchange. On the contrary, catalyzed by a welcome relaxation in rates, the flagship tricolor index will have covered an old working band, entirely, on Friday, between 7,340 points and 7,465 points. It is this last level, constituting significant resistance, which will constitute the technical challenge of the week. The market will have benefited from the support of securities with a very strong current Beta effect, in luxury or automotive equipment, such as Hermès (+3.24%), LVMH (+3.48%), OPMobility (+4.76%), Kering (+5.96%) or Valeo (+6.92%).
On Friday, the yield on France’s 10-year bond fell by 2 basis points (0.02 percentage points) to stand at 2.876%. The spread with the German security of the same maturity, a thermometer of market stress on the French signature, stands at 77 basis points, which is very far from its level of 88 basis points. from Monday.
On Friday, eyes were also on the publication across the Atlantic of the monthly NFP (Non Farm Payrolls) report on the state of health of American private employment. Flourishing health, confirmed by a very solid NFP. The American economy created 227,000 new jobs in the non-agricultural private sector, or 9,000 more than an already optimistic consensus would have predicted. The increase in average hourly wages stands at +0.4%, slightly exceeding the consensus, and finally, the unemployment rate is within the target, up very slightly to 4.2% of the active population.
Following the publication, the probabilities of a 25 basis point drop in Fed Funds remuneration increased, passing the 80% mark as defined by the CMEGroup’s FedWatch tool. The next FOMC will end on December 18. In the meantime, on Thursday, the ECB will conclude a new meeting of its Governing Council.
“Given the uncertainty around the neutral rate range and domestic inflation still too high, largely due to persistent price pressures in the services sector, key rates are expected to continue to gradually fall towards a neutral level “, anticipates Konstantin VEIT, portfolio manager at PIMCO, ahead of the ECB meeting, which sees a drop of 25 basis points on Thursday.
“The debate over the appropriate configuration of the neutral policy rate has begun and is likely to intensify over the coming months. Overall, market prices appear reasonable to us, but we see additional downside risks to growth after the American election.”
On the value side, Ubisoft jumped 13.1% on information from the Reuters agency which reported this Friday that the group’s shareholders were looking for ways to structure a delisting operation without reducing the control of the Guillemot family. Derichebourg climbed 10.9% after publishing its accounts for its 2023-2024 financial year ending at the end of September. A publication described as “excellent”, by TP ICAP Midcap. Among the sharp declines, the Atos title which collapsed by more than 98% while a massive influx of securities, which amounts to tens of billions of units, will occur in the coming days.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the main equity indices ended Friday’s session in mixed order, like the Dow Jones (-0.28%) and the Nasdaq Composite (+0.81%). . The S&P500, the benchmark barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, gained 0.25% to 6,090 points.
An update on other risky asset classes: around 8 a.m. this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to $1.0550. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of the appetite for risk on the financial markets, was trading around $67.30.
On the macroeconomic agenda this Monday, to follow as a priority the Sentix investor confidence index in the Euro Zone at 10:30 a.m.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
The flagship tricolor index will have traveled an old working band, entirely, on Friday, between 7,340 points and 7,465 points. It is this last level, constituting significant resistance, which will constitute the technical challenge of the week.
The session on Friday, December 6 is important in its construction, the length of the corresponding green candle materializing the definition of a new working framework.
FORECAST
Considering the key graphical factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
We will take care to note that crossing 7465.00 points would revive the buying tension. While a break of 7340.00 points would restart the selling pressure.
News Bulletin 247 advice
Hourly graph
Daily Data Chart
I have over 8 years of experience working in the news industry. I have worked as a reporter, editor, and now managing editor at 247 News Agency. I am responsible for the day-to-day operations of the news website and overseeing all of the content that is published. I also write a column for the website, covering mostly market news.
