by Claude Chendjou

PARIS (Reuters) – Wall Street is expected to fall slightly on Thursday the day after the Nasdaq record, while caution prevails on the European stock markets in the run-up to the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy decision. New York index futures signal Wall Street opening down 0.16% for the Dow Jones, 0.17% for the Standard & Poor’s 500 and 0.27% for the Nasdaq. This latest index crossed the symbolic bar of 20,000 points on Wednesday for the first time, driven in particular by the enthusiasm around artificial intelligence and the prospect of a rate cut in the United States given the latest price figures. consumption (CPI).

Investors across the Atlantic are now awaiting new economic indicators, including a monthly producer price index (PPI), as the US Federal Reserve meets next week. In Paris, the CAC 40 is in balance (-0.01%) at 7,422.55 points around 11:55 GMT. In Frankfurt, the Dax gained 0.04% and in London, the FTSE gained 0.15%.

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index declined by 0.12%, the Eurozone EuroStoxx 50 by 0.03% and the Stoxx 600 by 0.13%.

On a sectoral level in Europe, distribution (-1.11%) shows one of the biggest declines, while automobiles (+0.63%) and banks (+0.44%), sensitive to fluctuations in interest rates, are in the lead.

The ECB must make its last monetary policy decision of the year at 1:15 p.m. GMT and the consensus is for a further rate cut of 25 basis points. However, some economists predict a much larger reduction, of 50 basis points, in order to revive the European economy.

“Political uncertainty opens the door to a greater rate cut,” writes Maxime Mura, Rates and Credit IG manager at Swiss Life Asset Managers France, ahead of the ECB meeting.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) decided on Thursday to reduce its key rates by 50 basis points at once, following in the footsteps of the Bank of Canada (BoC) which also opted the day before for a massive reduction in the cost credit.

Market operators are calling for significant monetary easing while the political program that future American presidential candidate Donald Trump intends to pursue is seen as an additional threat to the global economy.

The Ifo institute estimates that German economic growth could be limited to 0.4% next year if the country does not manage to overcome its structural challenges, given the weakness of industrial orders. VALUES TO FOLLOW AT WALL STREET

Adobe falls 10.1% in pre-market trading. The Photoshop publisher announced Wednesday evening that it expects revenue for the 2025 financial year to be lower than expected, suggesting that investments to integrate artificial intelligence into its applications were taking longer than expected to bear fruit.

VALUES IN EUROPE Sopra Steria fell by 7.56% after the presentation of its objectives for 2204-2028.

Bruno Cucinelli jumped 6.01%, the Italian luxury group having revised upwards its turnover forecast for this year.

Lonza climbs 6.39%, the Swiss drug manufacturer having announced its intention to withdraw from the capsules and health ingredients activities which constituted a brake on the group’s growth.

Diageo takes 3.27%, UBS having moved to “buy” on the spirits group.

RATES Eurozone government bond yields rise slightly ahead of the ECB’s decisions. That of the German Bund at ten years takes 2.3 basis points, to 2.155%.

The yield gap between the Bund and the ten-year OAT stands at around 75 basis points, while France still does not have a Prime Minister.

In the United States, the yield on ten-year Treasury bonds rose by 2.9 basis points, to 4.3004%.

EXCHANGES The US dollar fell slightly, by 0.11%, to more than 106 points, against a basket of reference currencies, while remaining close to its peak of the year.

The Swiss franc lost 0.20%, to $0.886, after the SNB’s decision, while the euro rose by 0.10% to $1.0506 before that of the ECB.

OIL

Oil prices changed little on Thursday, with the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) forecast of excess supply in 2025 being offset by optimism linked to the prospect of a drop in interest rates in the United States. United.

Brent lost 0.11% to $70.87 per barrel, while American light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) was stable at $70.29.

MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS ON THE AGENDA FOR DECEMBER 12:

COUNTRY GMT INDICATOR PERIOD PREVIOUS CONSENSUS

USA 1:30 p.m. Weekly registrations for the week at 7 220,000 224,000

unemployment December

USA 1:30 p.m. Producer prices (PPI) Nov. +0.2% +0.2%

– over one year +2.6% +2.4%

(Written by Claude Chendjou, edited by Augustin Turpin)

Copyright © 2024 Thomson Reuters