EUR/USD: Still under bearish pressure

KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS

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The European currency continues to be under downward pressure and is expected to continue its consolidation towards parity over the coming days and weeks. Indeed, since last Thursday and Jerome Powell’s speech, bearish pressure has returned as the Fed presents itself at the end of the year with a more hawkish tone than expected by operators. The American Central Bank anticipates only two rate cuts next year now while the market saw twice as many on its side. In addition, macroeconomic information from the euro zone tends to deteriorate, thus reinforcing the gap between the two economic zones. According to a Bloomberg survey, the euro zone economy will grow less than expected next year and will only grow slightly stronger than in 2024. France and Germany continue to suffer, only good news is the outperformance of Spain, which should see its growth do even better next year. In this context, currency traders should further favor the dollar in the coming weeks to the detriment of the euro. Technically as long as the candle of Thursday, December 19 is not taken over by buyers, sellers keep control. Seasonality does invite spikes in volatility. The only event expected today: the publication of American consumer confidence by the Conference Board at 4:00 p.m. French time.

MEDIUM TERM FORECAST

Considering the key graphical factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative in the medium term on the EE (E) parity.

Our entry point is at 1.0416 E. The price target for our bearish scenario is at 1.0238 E. To preserve the committed capital, we advise you to position a protective stop at 1.0634 E.

The expected profitability of this Forex strategy is 178 pips and the risk of loss is 218 pips.

MEDIUM TERM FORECAST

Considering the key graphical factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative in the medium term on the EE (E) parity.

Our entry point is at 1.0416 E. The price target for our bearish scenario is at 1.0238 E. To preserve the committed capital, we advise you to position a protective stop at 1.0634 E.

The expected profitability of this Forex strategy is 178 pips and the risk of loss is 218 pips.

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