CAC 40: Start of 2025 without directional

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Seesaw session, for the first of the year on the CAC 40 on Thursday, with the key being an extremis close in the green, with the support of a lull on Wall Street, and the good performance of Airbus (+3.46%), supported by a positive rating from BoA. Totalenergies finished second on the podium (+2.2%), supported by the rebound in oil prices.

Operators have, however, taken note of the final data, not very pleasant but without much surprise, from the barometers of activity in the industry in the Euro Zone.

These data were confirmed almost 5 points below the 50 point mark, at 45.1, which gives an idea of ​​the contraction, due in particular to German structural difficulties. “Despite the approach of the end-of-year holidays, the situation remained gloomy in the manufacturing sector of the euro zone. Unsurprisingly, the trends were downward in December. The decline in new orders was even accentuated by compared to October and November, leading in turn to an acceleration in the decline in work in progress and thus destroying any hope of an imminent resumption of activity”, coldly notes Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at the Hamburg Commercial Bank .

Enough to further confirm the decoupling between the main economic centers in the Euro Zone and the insolent resilience of the United States, which just yesterday published figures for weekly registrations for unemployment benefits close to their low of 200,000.

A little earlier in the day, operators had learned of a disappointing statistic in China, also on the manufacturing activity front. The manufacturing PMI index calculated by Caixin/S&P Global actually contracted by one point in December, to 50.5 points compared to 51.5 points in November. The Chinese markets welcomed today’s statistics, the Chinese benchmark index CSI 300, which brings together shares listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen, fell by 2.9% this Thursday to 3,820.40 points, and recorded its worst start to the year since 2016, according to Bloomberg.

Luxury stocks, which are very exposed to Chinese demand, were, on the other hand, under pressure this Thursday. Hermès lost 0.9%, Kering -1% when LVMH managed to return to balance.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main equity indices ended the first session of the year symbolically in the red, like the Dow Jones (-0.36%) and the Nasdaq Composite (-0). .16%). The S&P500, the benchmark barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, contracted by 0.22% to 5,868 points.

An update on other risky asset classes: around 8:00 a.m. this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to $1.0270. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of the appetite for risk on the financial markets, was trading around $73.10.

On the macroeconomic agenda this Friday, to follow as a priority the American ISM manufacturing PMI index at 4:00 p.m.

KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS

In the short term, the “play” produced by the index in contact with an old gap (19/12) has little meaning given the volumes observed. We are neither opting for a clear ebb under this gap, nor for emancipation. The index actually behaves as if it had not filled this gap, and that this zone was a work zone of some kind. Neutral opinion proposed for the upcoming session.

FORECAST

Considering the key graphical factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

We will take care to note that crossing 7465.00 points would revive the buying tension. While a break of 7200.00 points would restart the selling pressure.

Hourly graph

Daily Data Chart