CAC 40: Mutation technical framework

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Tracted by luxury Thursday, in the wake of an impeccable publication of Switzerland Richemont, the Parisian market continued on its good momentum on Friday, with the participation of more sectors, nourished by the hope of a less restrictive American monetary policy that anticipated over the year that opens.

The Paris market was able to be brought by the declarations pronounced Thursday by the Governor of the American Federal Reserve (Fed), Christopher Waller. The central banker seemed to be favorable to reducing guiding rates on the part of the American institution in March, and said that three or four decreases were possible this year, if economic data allows, reports Deutsche Bank. What came somewhat reassuring a market which feared that the Fed pauses the rate drops this year.

In the statistical chapter, the final data for consumer prices in December in the euro zone were published, without any difference compared to the first estimates. Excluding volatile elements (food, energy, alcohol and tobacco), prices increased by 2.7% in annual rate, at the same rate as in November. In addition to Atlantic, the industry health report in December exceeded expectations, whether for production volume (+0.9%) or for the rate of use of production capacity (77.6% ).

In addition, China published this Friday, its growth figures for the entire year 2024 as well as for the fourth quarter of the past year. The gross domestic product (GDP) of China increased by 5% in 2024, the objective of the government, and by 5.4% in the fourth quarter, and therefore more than the 5% anticipated by consensus.

On the values ​​side, almost all of the CAC 40 increased with the exception of Carrefour (-4.95%) and LVMH (-0.80%), which had taken 9.15%the day before. Excluding CAC 40, Virbac made 3% after delivering its annual turnover. Among the great performances on compartment A side, let us quote Technip (+3.66%), Valeo (+3.29%), Pernod Ricard (+2.87%) or Stellantis (+2.85%) .

On the other side of the Atlantic, green dominated Friday on the main indices, like the Dow Jones (+0.78%) and the Nasdaq Composite (+1.51%). The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, took 1% round, closing to a hair of the 6,000 points.

A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,0,300. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 77.30.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Monday, a Eurogroup meeting, informal meeting of the finance ministers of the member states of the euro zone.

Note the closure of Wall Street this Monday, January 20 (commemoration of the birth of Martin Luther King). Washington will also host the inauguration ceremony of the 47th President of the United States, Donald Trump.

Key graphics elements

We attended a major technical and graphic fact Thursday January 16 with crossing on Gap then extension in session, from the pivot threshold of the 7,500 points, which finds its support attributes. The current work base therefore becomes a band between 7,500 and 7,690 points, in which a certain form of volatility is far from excluded.

This crossing was immediately followed by a new GAP (less ample) and a bullish extension in session, with the participation of many sectors, marking the assertion of the buyer camp.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we mentioned, our opinion is positive on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

This bullish scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 index rating above the support at 7465.00 points.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics