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The euro continued to resume its breath a little, near the high boller of Bollinger strips (20; 2.5) in a foreign exchange market which is eyeing monetary policy decisions, this week, on both sides of the ‘Atlantic.
The Fed will be the first to complete, on 01/29, its monetary policy committee. “The Fed will remain pending during the FOMC meeting in January, although recent data could suggest a slightly less restrictive posture than in December. The last statistics on inflation maintain the possibility of new rate drops, even If they would be limited, and the job market – despite a strong hiring dynamic – is not currently a source of inflationary pressure. chief for the United States of DWS.
The ECB will follow suit the next day with the end of its council of governors, the European equivalent of the FOMC. The “context [économique] Allows the ECB to further reduce the deposit rate by 25 base points, to 2.75 %”, for Ulrike Kastens, European economist of the same management house, which is based on dichotomy with the health of the economy of the economy American. “Since the last BCE meeting in December, the data situation in the euro zone has not changed much. Economic indicators continue to report rather low growth in the coming months. As expected, the inflation rate continued to increase at the end of 2024. However, inflation projections also show increased confidence in the fact that the increase in the cost of living will be close to the objective of the objective of ‘inflation.”
On the macroeconomic side, a German industrial PMI, less catastrophic than anticipated, at the end of last week, and a IFO index of the business climate in Germany online with expectations, this Monday, support this breathing phase of the courses.
To follow at 4:00 p.m. new housing sales across the Atlantic, before orders for lasting goods tomorrow and above all, the sacrosanct consumer confidence index (Conference Board). “On the manufacturing component, the business climate has further deteriorated,” said Clemens Fuest, president of the IFO Institute. “Companies were even more skeptical about the coming months. On the other hand, the current business situation has been considered better. Entering orders continue to decrease. The use of capacities has been almost unchanged at 76.5%. This figure remains much lower than the long -term average of 83.4%. “
At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against $ 1,0510 approximately.
Key graphics elements
The continuous 50 -day (in orange) mobile average constitutes a solid technical and graphic barrier. In the shorter term, it is even his counterpart at 20 days (in dark blue) that officiates as a dynamic resistance. And this without the RSI oscillator positioning itself in the occurrence zone.
Once the parity is perfect, namely $ 1 for a €, an energetic purchase of protest can be set up.
Medium term
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).
Our entry point is 1,0509 USD. The price of course in our lowering scenario is 1,0001 USD. To preserve the committed capital, we advise you to position a USD 1,0609 protection stop.
The profitability hope of this Forex strategy is 508 pips and the risk of loss is 100 pips.
The News Bulletin 247 Council
Daily data graphics
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