CAC 40: It’s Fed Day!

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The CAC remained, at this stage, relatively waterproof with shock wave caused by Deepseek, the conversational AI tool developed by the eponymous Chinese startup, the model of which was drawn for $ 6 million, a derisory sum Faced with that engaged by the American Openai, of the order of $ 3 billion. And this for stunning results in terms of efficiency.

“What Deepseek was able to achieve with open source AI and some improved learning strategies, forming a reasonably strong AI model for only a tenth of the cost, has created a shock wave for many IA companies American “, synthesizes Yan Taw (YT) Boon, manager at Neuberger Berman, who wants to be reassuring and potentially sees an opportunity.

“It is likely that the United States will continue to restrict China access to advanced IA fleas and advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment. In parallel, the United States will accelerate the deployment of IA infrastructure In order to maintain their advance in this technological race. It is in this context that we observe the return of Trump’s slogan: “Drill Baby Drill” (for a cheaper energy) and “Build Baby Build” (in reference to Stargate project estimated at $ 500 billion) “.

Only two Legrand files (-8.02% since the start of the week) and Schneider Electric (-16.24%) were at this stage heavily penalized by this news. “The logic is that the breakthrough of Deepseek would question the investments in the AI ​​and the data centers, the segment on which Schneider Electric and Legrand are well exposed,” explains an analyst. Schneider Electric and Legrand design software, products and services for data centers, in particular to optimize the energy efficiency of these very energy -consuming structures.

The operators will read this Wednesday from the end of the FED monetary policy (FOMC) committee, while Donald Trump’s pressure on J Powell is becoming more and more lively, in defiance of the theoretical independence of the monetary institution.

“The first post election meeting of Donald Trump will set the tone on monetary policy for the next quarters. Beyond the expected status quo is the message issued by Jerome Powell which will be scrutinized. It is likely that it will do Proof of wait -and -see by insisting on the inflationary risk that has not disappeared. On future customs duties. “, For Emmanuel Auboyneau, associate manager at Amplegest.

In the statistical chapter Tuesday, monthly orders for durable goods (cars included) flanked by 2.2%, completely missing expectations. Richmon Fed Manufacturing index achieves an impressive rise (-4) without managing to reintegrate the positive territory. As for the consumer confidence index (Conference Board), it appears at 104.1, not far from expectations, although slightly below.

The results season will also intensify. In the United States, Microsoft, Meta, Tesla and Apple will publish their accounts, while in Paris LVMH gave the BAL to the CAC 40 on Tuesday after the closing of the market. According to Deutsche Bank, after the publications of Burberry and Richemont, investors have probably revised their expectations on LVMH. The German bank estimates that market operators have probably anticipated an increase of 2% to 3% in the Fashion and Leather goods division in the fourth quarter.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on action ended in green, with a rebound marked on the technological part of the coast. If the Dow Jones grabbed 0.31%, the Nasdaq Composite won 2.03%. The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, gained 0.92% to 6,067 points.

A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,0430. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 73.70.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Wednesday,

Key graphics elements

We attended a major technical and graphic fact Thursday January 16 with crossing on Gap then extension in session, from the pivot threshold of the 7,500 points, which finds its support attributes. The current work base therefore becomes a band between 7,500 and 7,690 points, in which a certain form of volatility is far from excluded.

This crossing was immediately followed by a new GAP (less ample) and a bullish extension in session, with the participation of many sectors, marking the assertion of the buyer camp.

A first manifestation of a need for courses breathing was illustrated on Wednesday with a high shadow on the candle, on a level close to the 7,800 points, the first palpable obstacle since the rush crossing of 7,465/7,500 points. Between 7,900 and 8,000 points, the flagship index comes into a very short -term over -rascal zone, premises a consolidation entry.

The index just flirted with the 8,000 symbolic points on Friday and reflected on Monday.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

We will take care to note that a crossing of the 8000.00 points would revive the tension to the purchase. While a break in the 7810.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics