CAC 40: Council of governors and copies of tech giants on the menu

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Penalized by its main LVMH weighting (-4.98%), the CAC fell slightly Mecredi (-0.32% to 7,872 points), materializing, by its second star doji of rank, its entry into consolidation after an impressive rally of … start of the year!

Our national luxury flagship therefore disappointed a legitimately gourmet community on these levels of valuation, and after the excellent copies of the Swiss Richemond and the British Burberry.

“The fourth quarter shows a sequential improvement (from one quarter to the next, editor’s note) but not as good as hoped,” sums up Deutsche Bank. The German bank stresses that investors had raised the bar on their expectations, after the publications of Richemont and Burberry. In the fashion and leather goods division, market operators were probably tabling on growth of 2% to 3% in comparable data, against, therefore, a decline of 1%, adds Deutsche Bank.

The sanction is relative, and it will be noted that the title simply finds its lessons last Thursday.

Nevertheless, the entire luxury sector suffered in Paris, L’Oréal abandoning 3.06%, Christian Dior 5.28%, and Kering 5.40%.

Remy Cointreau, on spirits, lost 7.35%, after having reported a fall in sales in the third quarter of his staggered exercise 2024-2025. The latest figures from Rémy Cointreau are once again carrying the traces of a difficult market environment in the United States and China, its two major markets.

A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,0430. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 73.70.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Thursday, weekly registrations for unemployment benefits at 2:30 p.m., before the press conference of the BCE Post Council of Governors.

“Frankfurt monetary authorities should probably lower the key rate of 0.25 percentage points to 2.75 % at their meeting on January 30. By summer, two other reductions of the same order are to be expected , before the economic situation in the euro zone restarts slightly and the ECB finished its monetary softening, probably with a deposit rate of 2.25 %”, analyzes Dr. Felix Schmidt, Senior Economist at Berenberg.

Emmanuel Auboyneau, Associate Manager at Amplegest abounds: “The ECB should make a new drop in rates at the January 30 meeting, thus accentuating decorrelation with American policy. Sweat growth in Europe and largely controlled inflation justify a more conciliatory monetary policy.

Key graphics elements

We attended a major technical and graphic fact Thursday January 16 with crossing on Gap then extension in session, from the pivot threshold of the 7,500 points, which finds its support attributes. The current work base therefore becomes a band between 7,500 and 7,690 points, in which a certain form of volatility is far from excluded.

This crossing was immediately followed by a new GAP (less ample) and a bullish extension in session, with the participation of many sectors, marking the assertion of the buyer camp.

A first manifestation of a need for courses breathing was illustrated on Wednesday with a high shadow on the candle, on a level close to the 7,800 points, the first palpable obstacle since the rush crossing of 7,465/7,500 points. Between 7,900 and 8,000 points, the flagship index comes into a very short -term over -rascal zone, premises a consolidation entry.

The index just flirted with the 8,000 symbolic points on Friday and reflected on Monday. The two doji of indecision drawn at the heart of the week are marker of a wait -and -see wait, and therefore of a precarious balance, at the start of consolidation.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

We will take care to note that a crossing of the 7900.00 points would revive the tension to the purchase. While a break in the 7810.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics