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On both sides of the Atlantic, moreover, the equity markets were allocated by the martial tone adopted by D. Trump on the issue of customs duties applied to foreign products entering US territory. In Paris, the CAC 40 lost 1.20% to 7,854 points, far from its low session points, which correspond to the opening (7,785 points).
After having confirmed first measures against its immediate neighbors (Canada and Mexico up to 25%), as well as China (10% additional), the American president takes out the claws by being increasingly threatening against the European Union. The index managed to limit his withdrawal after Donald Trump’s decision to suspend for one month a surcharge on imports from Mexico.
With an always “rich” vocabulary, the tenant of the White House declared in front of an audience of journalists, based on the deficit of the trade balance with the European Union: “They do not take our cars or our agricultural products, Almost nothing and we all take millions of cars, a lot of agricultural products “.
“I don’t have a calendar but it is very soon!”, He said.
“Canada has already announced retaliatory measures, 25% customs taxes with $ 107 billion in imports from American products. For its part, the Mexican president said that it would give details of the countermersions today. China has also announced that it would adopt retaliation measures without however giving more detail at this stage, “figure Alexandre Baradez (IG France), opening, filigree, the question of whether in the trade war that opens , there will be winners and losers, or only losers …
“It is starting to do a lot, even for the American indices because these commercial advertisements intervene when the Fed decided to take a break on its rate drops,” continued the analyst.
Even the brutal 47th President of the United States has recognized itself that the Americans could “suffer”, adding, on its Truth network, that it was the price to pay to know a new “gold” of gold. Brown barriers of all kinds, to prosper better, this is the DNA of Trumpist “philosophy” … Strong hard, to negotiate then then, here is another mantra of the real estate magnate.
“It is difficult to understand at this stage what is the economic objective sought,” wonders Sebastien Paris Horvitz de LBPAM. “The United States would be losing in the current situation, especially since Mexico and Canada intend to take reprisals. Canada has already done so and Mexico should announce measures today.”
“What is already certain is that one of the major objectives of Donald Trump which is to lower inflation, will not be achieved but will get worse in the short term. By following the estimates of the Fed made in the past (in 2018), Bloomberg estimates that the impact on American GDP of the announced measures could cost 1.2 percentage points on American growth and 0.7 inflation points in full year, “he adds.
In the statistical chapter on Monday, the operators learned of the final data of the PMI manufacturing barometers in the euro zone. “Relative” good surprise with the only German component, very supervised, which appears at 45.0 against 44.1 in the first estimate. The score remains at 5 points below the threshold of 50 points, which separates by building a contraction of an expansion of the sector considered. Inflation for the month of January, in the euro zone, excluding food, energy, alcohol and tobacco, comes out at +2.7% in annualized pace, slightly above consensus. As for the American Manufacturer PMI, it was symbolically ironed above the 50 point mark, 50.9, against 40.3 last month.
On the values ​​aspect, in this context of commercial tensions, the automotive sector paid the heaviest tribute this Monday on the Paris Stock Exchange. Manufacturers import a large part of the production sold in the United States from Mexico and Canada. Stellantis fell 4.2% while, excluding CAC 40, forvia automotive equipment manufacturers, Valeo dropped by 10.6% and 6.3% respectively. Absent from the United States, Renault gave up -2.8%.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares finished in the red, like the Dow Jones (-0.28%) and the Nasdaq Composite (-1.20%). The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, contracted 0.76%, ironing below the symbolic threshold of the 6,000 points.
A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,0,300. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 71.80.
At the macroeconomic agenda this Tuesday, to follow in priority the new job offers (JOLTS) in the United States at 4:00 p.m.
Key graphics elements
We attended a major technical and graphic fact Thursday January 16 with crossing on Gap then extension in session, from the pivot threshold of the 7,500 points, which finds its support attributes. The current work base therefore becomes a band between 7,500 and 7,690 points, in which a certain form of volatility is far from excluded.
This crossing was immediately followed by a new GAP (less ample) and a bullish extension in session, with the participation of many sectors, marking the assertion of the buyer camp.
A first manifestation of a need for courses breathing was illustrated on Wednesday with a high shadow on the candle, on a level close to the 7,800 points, the first palpable obstacle since the rush crossing of 7,465/7,500 points. Between 7,900 and 8,000 points, the flagship index comes into a very short -term over -rascal zone, premises a consolidation entry.
The index just flirted with the 8,000 symbolic points on Friday and reflected on Monday. Both doji Indecision traced at the heart of the week are a marker of a wait -and -see attitude, and therefore of a precarious balance, at the start of consolidation. This balance will be broken from the start of February, by a likely, scale gap.
FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
This downward scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 rating index below resistance at 8000.00 points.
The News Bulletin 247 Council
Hourly data graphics
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