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Market psychology on the pair of currencies remained against the euro, in a context of trade war. In general, the exchange market tries to compose with the unpredictability of Trump, who one day turns into chief customs, another as a poker player, another in a short panty diplomat … Last fad to date: The American president wants the United States to “control” the Gaza Strip, whose population could emigrate to Egypt or Jordan. The goal? Establish peace in the region and … create a “riviera” which would be “magnificent” … Another fine example of “Deadcatting”!
The trades will follow this weekly registration for unemployment benefits this Thursday at 2:30 p.m. Yesterday, the Private Human Resources Cabinet ADP will encrypt the number of postal creations in the private sector, well beyond expectations, confirming tensions on the job market across the Atlantic. The NFP (non -Farm Payrolls) of tomorrow will be all the more scrutinized … because this chronic warm -up on the job market naturally has an impact on prices. Here are the main elements of consensus of the report of tomorrow: unemployment is expected stable at 4.1% of the active population, the number of positions of posts in the private sector outside agriculture at 169,000, and the monthly increase in wages contained in +0.3%.
Alexandre Baradez (IG France) recalls that last week, “PCE inflation, Fed’s favorite inflation measure, that which it uses in its quarterly projections, still came to 2.8% […]marking a sixth consecutive month without new progress towards the target target of the Fed. It even rebounded a little over this period of two quarters, going from 2.6% to 2.8%. Even if we are far from the peak of 2022 to 5.6%, the lack of progress was obviously noticed by the Fed, which justified the change of speech of Jerome Powell in December but also in January, with a change of elements language concerning inflation and employment in the latest Fed press release on Wednesday.
At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against $ 1,0360 approximately.
Key graphics elements
The continuous 50 -day (in orange) mobile average constitutes a solid technical and graphic barrier. In the shorter term, it is even his counterpart at 20 days (in dark blue) that officiates as a dynamic resistance. And this without the RSI oscillator positioning itself in the occurrence zone. In the immediate future, the pair of currencies traces, in the upper part of the Bollinger bands, a negative structure in harami. Once the parity is perfect, namely $ 1 for a €, an energetic buyer of protest can then be set up.
Medium term
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).
Our entry point is 1,0359 USD. The price of course in our lowering scenario is 1,0001 USD. To preserve the committed capital, we advise you to position a protection stop at 1,0471 USD.
The profitability hope of this Forex strategy is 358 pips and the risk of loss is 112 pips.
The News Bulletin 247 Council
Daily data graphics
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