CAC 40: The technical challenge of 8,000 points

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The Paris market showed spectacular resistance on Monday, even managing to grab a few points, after the last “customs” announcements of the imperialo-protectionist Donald Trump. Above all, the CAC 40 has managed to close above the symbolic bar of the 8,000 points, at 8,006 points.

Donald Trump announced on Sunday that it would establish 25% customs surcharge on steel and aluminum imports for the United States. Investors have kept their composure, adapting to the style of negotiation-specific to the American leader.

“For the moment, the trade war is limited,” notes Christopher Dembik, investment strategy advisor at Pictet AM. “About 5% of American GDP is directly affected by the increase in customs duties with regard to Mexico, Canada and China. It is not painless. But it is not catastrophic either. None. Countries only wishes the situation. .

In the statistical chapter, investors have read the index of investors’ confidence in the euro zone. If the latter progresses beyond expectations, at -12.7 points, it is still significantly anchored in negative territory. It is the “expectations for the next 6 months” component, which allows the index to make this progression.

On the values ​​side, eight CAC 40 companies including Kering, Hermès and Safran, will deliver their accounts this week. In the meantime, businesses were not very many on Monday. On the CAC 40, ArcelorMittal limited its decline at 0.58%, after the announcements of American customs surcharge on steel. GTT, on the other hand, abandoned 4%, weighted by the announcement of the surprise departure of its director general, Jean-Baptiste Choimet.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares finished the session on Monday in the green, like the Dow Jones (+0.38%) and the Nasdaq Composite (+0.98%) . The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, nibbled 0.67% to 6,066 points.

A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,0,300. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 72.40.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Tuesday, to follow the NFIB index of small American businesses at 12:00 p.m. on Tuesday and the first part of the parliamentary hearings of J Powell, owner of the Fed.

Key graphics elements

We attended a major technical and graphic fact Thursday January 16 with crossing on Gap then extension in session, from the pivot threshold of the 7,500 points, which finds its support attributes. The current work base therefore becomes a band between 7,500 and 7,690 points, in which a certain form of volatility is far from excluded.

This crossing was immediately followed by a new GAP (less ample) and a bullish extension in session, with the participation of many sectors, marking the assertion of the buyer camp.

A first manifestation of a need for courses breathing was illustrated on Wednesday with a high shadow on the candle, on a level close to the 7,800 points, the first palpable obstacle since the rush crossing of 7,465/7,500 points. Between 7,900 and 8,000 points, the flagship index comes into a very short -term over -rascal zone, premises a consolidation entry.

The index just flirted with the 8,000 symbolic points on Friday 24 and 31/01 and reflected on Monday 27/01 and 03/02. Both doji Indecision traced at the heart of the week are a marker of a wait -and -see attitude, and therefore of a precarious balance, at the start of consolidation. This balance was broken from the beginning of February, by a large -scale gap. The real test in progress is that of the 8,000 points.

The construction of a lowered harami on Friday 07/02 obeys the chances of rapid and sustainable crossing of the 8,000 points. This will take sufficient breathtaking.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

We will take care to note that a crossing of the 8315.00 points would revive the tension to the purchase. While a break in the 7810.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics