CAC 40: the market royally ignores American inflation

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The CAC 40 managed to climb in positive territory on Wednesday (+0.17% to 8,042 points), after a session, however marked by American inflation than anticipated in January. Hopes of peace in Ukraine should allow the market this morning to open comfortably above the symbolic threshold of the 8,000 points.

The publication of consumer prices in the United States yesterday fell timely at the heart of the semi-annual hearing of the boss of the Fed in front of parliamentarians (of the Senate on Tuesday and the Chamber of Representatives on Wednesday). Regarding these ICCs (Consumer Price Index), they come up 3.0% in the widest product basket in annual rhythm in January, against a target at 2.9%. Enough to cause additional yields, especially the American 10 years which serves as a barometer. THE Treasuries 10 Years Flawed towards 4.60% in the wake of this statistic which puts a little more pressure on the monetary institution, forced to stabilize its rates.

“This is the 9th time over the past 10 years that inflation has been released above expectations in January. This time, the rise in underlying inflation is almost entirely explained by the component ‘ Transport ‘.

Already at the end of last week, the publication of a very solid employment report sent a “hawkish” message. “Overall, the underlying figures are more solid than suggests disappointment on hiring, and the labor market seems to have gained dynamism towards the end of 2024 and at the beginning of 2025. Strong revisions up Population estimates are probably due to immigration in 2024, which, combined with increased wage pressures, could constitute a restrictive signal for the Fed. New wage increases, “said Christian Scherrmann, chief economist of the United States, for DWS.

On the values ​​side, Kering finished at the top of the CAC (+7.01%) still carried by the publication the day before, of annual results a little less bad than expected. Renault won 2.25% while the president of the Taiwanese group Foxconn, Young Liu, told Bloomberg to be open to the acquisition of the French group’s participation in Nissan. Carrefour finally finished in the red (-0.5%) after announcing its intention to rise to 100% of the capital of its Brazilian subsidiary and get it out of the stock market.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares have finished far from their low points of the day, although overall in the red, like the Dow Jones (-0.50%). The stainless Nasdaq Composite managed to finish in balance, while the S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk of fund managers, depreciated from 0.27% to 6,052 points.

A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,0430. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 70.50.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Thursday, to follow in priority industrial production in the euro zone at 11:00 and across the Atlantic at 2:30 p.m., production prices as well as weekly registrations for unemployment benefits.

Key graphics elements

We attended a major technical and graphic fact Thursday January 16 with crossing on Gap then extension in session, from the pivot threshold of the 7,500 points, which finds its support attributes. The current work base therefore becomes a band between 7,500 and 7,690 points, in which a certain form of volatility is far from excluded.

This crossing was immediately followed by a new GAP (less ample) and a bullish extension in session, with the participation of many sectors, marking the assertion of the buyer camp.

A first manifestation of a need for courses breathing was illustrated on Wednesday with a high shadow on the candle, on a level close to the 7,800 points, the first palpable obstacle since the rush crossing of 7,465/7,500 points. Between 7,900 and 8,000 points, the flagship index comes into a very short -term over -rascal zone, premises a consolidation entry.

The index just flirted with the 8,000 symbolic points on Friday 24 and 31/01 and reflected on Monday 27/01 and 03/02. Both doji Indecision traced at the heart of the week are a marker of a wait -and -see attitude, and therefore of a precarious balance, at the start of consolidation. This balance was broken from the beginning of February, by a large -scale gap. The real test in progress is that of the 8,000 points.

The construction of a lowered harami on Friday 07/02 obeys the chances of rapid and sustainable crossing of the 8,000 points. This will take sufficient breathtaking.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we mentioned, our opinion is positive on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

This bullish scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 rating index above the support at 8000.00 points.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics