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The euro, facing the dollar, continued its reaction, against a background of a sharp risk for the risk, while a hope of peace in Ukraine sees itself.
President Donald Trump discussed this Wednesday, February 12 for almost 90 minutes by phone with Vladimir Putin. An exchange that had never been so long between Moscow and Washington since the start of the Russian invasion in Ukraine in February 2022. The 47th President of the United States decided with Vladimir Putin to launch “immediate” negotiations on the Ukraine. The two men also agreed to meet in person.
The dollar remains very firm, however, in the face of the single currency after many months of increase, supported by a gap (in the Inteent T and to come) of the “remuneration” of the two currencies, measured in terms State. The 10 -year -old American has also healed the main American publications, on employment, retail prices and producer prices.
In particular, published in the heart of the week, inflation in January across the Atlantic came beyond expectations at +3.0% at an annual rate, for the widest basket of products.
“After the publication of these figures, Wall Street switched to the red before gradually straightening up. Performance that raises questions while Donald Trump is preparing to increase customs duties on steel and aluminum imports, This suggests new inflationary pressures, “anticipates Grégoire Kounowski, investment strategy advisor at Norman K.
“In any event, rates are stretched across the Atlantic. Now, markets are no longer anticipated only one drop in key rates by the Fed in 2025 while Donald Trump has been campaigning for several months for more rate drops many from the Fed. “
The CME Group’s Fedwatch tool augurs this unique lowering of the dollar rent in 2025 for the month of June, or July.
THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyields of American sovereign bonds due to 10 years, remained firm at 4.53%. They flirted as a reminder with the 4.66% in the process of publication of consumer prices on Wednesday.
To be continued at 2:30 p.m. retail sales across the Atlantic, with a consensus at +0.3% monthly, excluding cars.
At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against $ 1,0,475 approximately.
Key graphics elements
The continuous 50 -day (in orange) mobile average constitutes a solid technical and graphic barrier. In the shorter term, it is even his counterpart at 20 days (in dark blue) that officiates as a dynamic resistance. And this without the RSI oscillator positioning itself in the occurrence zone. In the immediate future, the pair of currencies traces, in the upper part of the Bollinger bands, a negative structure in harami. Once the parity is perfect, namely $ 1 for a €, an energetic buyer of protest can then be set up.
Medium term
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).
Our entry point is 1,0469 USD. The price of course in our lowering scenario is 1,0001 USD. To preserve the committed capital, we advise you to position a USD 1,0609 protection stop.
The profitability hope of this Forex strategy is 468 pips and the risk of loss is 140 pips.
The News Bulletin 247 Council
Daily data graphics
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