(BFM Stock Exchange) – The three establishments have delivered satisfactory results for their fourth quarter, with a special mention to Société Générale which seems to be in the eyes of investors. Barclays is confident on the potential of the Defense Bank as well as that of BNP Paribas.

The French banks have managed a full box in this season of the 2024 annual results. “We did not expect the banking sector much and it is the one that surprised the most positively,” summed up Thierry Gautier, Managing Director of GSD Gestion, On BFM Business, Friday, February 7. “We are delighted to see their results finally praised, he added.

A few days before these results, UBS had already written an optimistic note, recommending to “overcome” French banks in 2025. The Swiss establishment stressed that if the three listed French banks (Société Générale, Crédit Agricole SA and BNP Parbas) had under -At to carry their sisters when interest rates rose, the reverse should now occur now that rates go down.

This is due in particular to the fact that rate reductions are accompanied by a reduction in the rates of regulated savings booklets (booklet A, LDD), and therefore of less expensive deposits for French banks.

In addition, lower rates should result in an increase in real estate loans volumes for French banks. And, outside the retail bank, number of their trades (automotive financing, investment bank, asset management, insurance) work better when the rates are low, noted UBS.

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A remarkable “mini rally”

Ultimately, BNP Paribas increased by 4.2% on February 4, on the day of the publication of its annual results, which had notably been carried by its market activities.

Crédit Agricole SA followed the next day, with a more moderate increase (+0.8%), its accounts having been supported by insurance and asset management.

Société Générale then, on February 6, enchanted the scholarship (+13.18%) with a copy which met almost all the expectations of investors.

The Defense Bank, which is the most exposed of the three establishments at the retail bank in France in proportion to its income, had notably delivered net income of interest (the difference between the interests perceived on the credits and those paid on remunerated deposits) up sharply in France.

Better still, beyond the simple reaction during the session following the publication of the results, the three French banks experienced a small stock market rally over a week. This is noted by Barclays in a note published this week. Between February 3 and February 12, BNP Paribas won 10%, Crédit Agricole SA took 7%and Société Générale 23%!

Obviously, after this increase movement arises the question of potential: do French banks still have the means to go higher?

Barclays is confident but prefers BNP and Socgen

Barclays is generally confident, judging in his note published on Wednesday that French banks have “passed a speed”.

However, the British establishment is distinguishing among the three. Barclays thus sees less value to look for at Crédit Agricole SA, a bank “with a robust profile and strategy, especially in a low rate environment”. But Barclays believes that the results of the listed structure of the Crédit Agricole group will underline those of BNP Paribas and Société Générale.

The establishment is counting on an annual increase in profit per share of 4% per year on 2024-2027, against 10% for the bank of the rue d’Antin and 19% for Société Générale. The situation in Italy, where Crédit Agricole is to assert its interests as part of the looming consolidation, can also add “uncertainty”, notes Barclays.

The objective of Barclays courses on Crédit Agricole SA (17.8 euros) thus grants “only a potential of 16%, and the British establishment prefers to remain” online weighting “(equivalent of” neutral ” ) on the title.

Its targets on BNP Paribas (96 euros) and Société Générale (48 euros) are more ambitious, with appreciation potentials more than 30% for both actions. Regarding BNP Paribas, Barclays believes that the action of the bank will still see its multiple scholarship holders progress, thanks to a rise in its net revenues of interest in the retail bank and its control of costs.

For Société Générale, the British bank had exposed its thesis in detail a few weeks ago. She considers in particular that the establishment of defense presents the best trajectory of improvement in profits among European banks.

Société Générale, one of the favorite values ​​of Bank of America

Société Générale has also become a “consensual bet” among analysts, many of them now recommend buying the action of the Rouge and Noire Banque.

This is the case of UBS which reiterated its advice after the season of the results. For her, Société Générale sent “a second shock of trust” (after the results of the third quarter in the fall) with its accounts of the fourth quarter. The Swiss Bank underlines in particular the amounts of dividend and program of share buybacks which have been announced by the company.

UBS also confirmed its advice to purchase on Crédit Agricole SA, appreciating its growth prospects, the high level of its return to equity and its acquisition policy. The Swiss establishment remains, on the other hand, to “neutral” on BNP Paribas.

Bank of America has reiterated its recommendations for purchase both on BNP Paribas and Société Générale. The American establishment estimates that BNP Paribas should see its valuation gap with other European establishments are reduced thanks to the growth of its income, which should exceed 5% per year from 2024 to 2026.

As for Société Générale, it is one of the 25 major favorite European values ​​of the American bank for 2025. Bank of America estimates that Société Générale will be able to return 9 billion to 12 billion cash to its shareholders over the next three years and that it could significantly reduce its cost base by 2026.

Optimistic Jefferies for the three groups

Royal Bank of Canada is to “outperformance” on BNP Paribas, equivalent to buying, against “sectoral performance” (that is to say “neutral”) for Crédit Agricole SA and Société Générale.

Jefferies, for its part, recommends that the three French banks buy, a position that the design office has been holding since last June and the dissolution of the National Assembly by the President of the Republic, Emmanuel Macron. The political uncertainty that arose from this episode had undergone French banks on the stock market, causing decreases deemed exaggerated by Jefferies.

The financial intermediary underlined, in passing, the fact that French banks are much better armed than other European establishments to sail as well as possible in an environment of rate cuttings, with, in addition to very diverse activity models.

Jefferies sees the actions of the three French banks go very far, with a target of courses of 23.4 euros for Crédit Agricole SA, 90 euros for BNP Paribas and 45 euros for Société Générale. This offers respective increase potentials of 53%, 30%and 22%.