(BFM Stock Exchange) – Ploued by a pronounced shortness of breath, the sector was under pressure in 2024. But at the edge of this new year, luxury finally hopes to find some colors.

The year 2024 will have been a year of slowdown in the luxury market during which several large groups in the sector suffered, but the signs of end -of -year recovery suggest a better vintage in 2025.

“Once is not custom, I’m not going to announce record results,” said Bernard Arnault, CEO of LVMH. The net profit of the world number one luxury dived by 17% and its turnover fell by 2%.

After “three years of euphoria”, “we have a year of consolidation in 2024, we must take this year for what it is,” commented the financial director of the group Jean-Jacques Guiony during an exchange with journalists.

The Kering group, in difficulty with its Gucci brand which it is trying to straighten, saw its net profit collapse by 62%.

Hermès, “in a separate league”

The luxury market has slowed down in general, especially penalized by less strong expenses of Chinese consumers.

Only a few big names have come out winners of 2024. The Italian manufacturer of luxury cars Ferrari recorded a net profit up 21%, and Moncler, known for his down jackets, increased its sales by 4% and its net profit by 4 , 5%

Hermès, “in a separate league”, according to Citi Bank, has achieved a new record year with a net profit up 6.8% and a turnover that spends 15 billion euros approaching that from Kering (17 billion).

Prudent optimism seems to be in the big names in the sector at the edge of the new year. “The year 2025 begins well,” said Bernard Arnault at the end of January.

For his part, at Hermès, Axel Dumas “remains cautious but ambitious for the year”. “I remain very positive on 2025” even if “the bar is high,” he said.

François-Henri Pinault, faced with the problems specific to Kering, believes that “2025 will be a year of stabilization”.

Slow growth until 2027

But the horizon is still uncertain. According to a study by McKinsey, the growth of the luxury market will be slower in the coming years, between 1% and 3% annual until 2027.

The Bain and Company office estimates in a study published in January that the Chinese luxury market “should remain stable in 2025” with a “downward trend in the first half” and a “recovery” in the second part of the year. The Chinese luxury market “had a drop from 18 to 20% over a year in 2024, returning to the 2020 levels, according to the study.

The enthusiasm vis-à-vis the US expansion market has been slowed down by the threat of customs taxes pronounced by the Trump administration. McKinsey estimates that customs duties on imports could reduce American spending from 46 to 78 billion dollars per year.

“The house is almost 190 years old, we have experienced customs duties,” said Axel Dumas. “If customs duties increase, we will increase our prices to compensate,” he said.

“American customers we will remain faithful and those who find it too expensive will come and enjoy our hotel infrastructure in Paris and buy in the Faubourg (mother store and headquarters of the group located on rue du Faubourg Saint-Honoré, editor’s note)”, he insured saying himself “not particularly worried”.

As for Bernard Arnault, seen with two of her children, Delphine, CEO of Dior and Alexandre, Deputy Managing Director of Moët-Hennessy, among the dozens of guests closest to Donald Trump during the American president’s inauguration ceremony , he said “prefer not to express themselves and try to act quietly”.

In October, the boss of the watchmaking and jeweler of Chanel Frédéric Grangié had pointed out a “much more disturbing factor and which explains why this crisis will potentially last longer” which is due to a form of “luxury fatigue”.

“The 1920s and 2026 will be complicated,” he said to the Swiss daily Le Temps.

(With AFP)