(News Bulletin 247) – La Foncière expects a decline in its results this year, citing a macroeconomic and political context which could slow down the pace of the recovery in new real estate.

Unsurprisingly, ICADE 2024 results are marked by a degraded market context in new real estate. The group, which is both a promoter but also a property of office, had to deal with last year with an unprecedented crisis in the sector.

“We had to face a complicated context in our two historic professions which are promotion and housing, but also investment in offices,” said Nicolas Joly, Managing Director of Icade, who was the guest of Good Morning Business, this Wednesday, February 19.

Best in residential promotion

In 2024, Icade unveiled consolidated revenues to decline 5% to 1.452 billion euros.

In detail, the gross rental income of the tertiary pole – which represent a little more than 25% of the overall turnover – resisted, standing at 369.9 million euros in 2024, or growth over one year 1.4% in published data and 2.5% on a constant perimeter.

On the other hand, the promotion center – which represents more than 71% of Icade revenues – gave an economic turnover of 1.214 billion euros, a decline of 6.1% over one year. The group explains that this decline in activity in particular affects the tertiary segment (-27.3%) due to the delivery of significant operations and the limited volume of new signatures.

The turnover on the residential promotion activity is stable (+0.6%), thanks to a resumption of the activity in diffuse, that is to say with individuals. “We see the impact of the drop in rates on reservations volumes, it’s +17%,” said the manager, who specifies that he did better than the market in 2024 (-3.7%). In October, La Foncière already said it noted recovery signals in residential promotion with a slightly increased reservations.

A CFNC slightly higher than the objectives

In total, the Cash Flow Net Current (CFNC) by action for 2024, that is to say its profitability reference indicator, established 3.98 euros per share, including 2.94 euros per share for the CFNC of so-called activities “strategic”. These two indicators decide respectively 13.9% and 4.1% over a year.

“We sold part of our health activity, which weighs mechanically on our cash flow but this operation allowed us to strengthen our assessment to cross the crisis,” recalls Nicolas Joly.

“In our office investment profession, we faced a number of departures in 2024 and that is the challenge of repositioning our portfolio. We have between 10% and 15% of office buildings that ‘We consider to reposition, that is to say that the day the tenant leaves, reality is that this building will have to be transformed to sell it so that it is attractive. -flow, “adds the leader.

However, La Foncière is “slightly better” than the objective that had been revised upwards at the end of November, notes Invest Securities. Thanks to an additional income from her ex-health activity, La Foncière had raised her objective of cash flow current (CFNC) in a range of 3.78 euros to 3.93 euros per share, including a CFNC of strategic activities in The top of a range between 2.75 euros and 2.90 euros per share.

On the other hand, the value of the property portfolio continued its decline in 2024 “as widely” anticipated by Oddo BHF. This decrease is 7.1% on a constant scope including -6.7% for the well-positioned offices (that is to say which, according to Icade, correspond to the new expectations of customers), and a decrease of 17, 6% TO-BE-Repositioned offices (to be repositioned, therefore).

Prudence sanctioned

For the coming year, the company says it is cautious about the level of activity, citing “an environment always volatile and full of political and economic uncertainty”.

The company tables a CFNC between 3.40 euros and 3.60 euros per share, in net falling back in relation to the 3.93 euros.

“For 2025, we are cautious because it is estimated that on our profession of investment, the departures that have crystallized in 2024 will continue to weigh in full year on our cash flow. On the promotion, we had a Big job in 2024 to go to iron straw our project portfolio. 2025 and in an uncertain environment on the macroeconomic and political level, “warns Nicolas Joly.

The manager cites in particular the disappearance of the Pinel system, which concentrated 20% of housing reservations. New real estate players have alerted many times to the end of this tax niche dedicated to rental investment, fearing catastrophic consequences on their activity already in crisis.

“The Pinel made it possible to produce 25,000 dwellings per year. Its disappearance is a real shock for the market,” said Fabrice Aubert, deputy director of Nexity, on the set of real estate experts on Monday, February 17.

Perhaps also a sign of a certain caution, the property announced the payment of a dividend of 4.31 euros against 4.74 euros expected by consensus, according to Oddo BHF. The broker notes that the property has clearly reduced its distribution rate to 45% against 75% in 2023. “This distribution policy is justified by Icade by its desire to limit the amount of dividends to preserve its ability to finance its future growth” , explains Oddo BHF.

On the Paris Stock Exchange, Icade is harshly sanctioned. The property drops 7.9% around 1 p.m.