EUR/USD: Fed needs clarity on customs duties

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The backdrop remained the same on the pair of Euro / dollar currencies, which continued to suffer from the current and future difference, of “remuneration” between the two currencies. This work matrix was still reinforced yesterday by the Fed minutes, a traditional report of the last FOMC which made it possible to realize if it was necessary for the concerns of the members of the Board as to the aggressive commercial policy led by D Trump.

Besides, the White House tenant left for the offensive on this front. After having already targeted aluminum and steel imports, Donald Trump said to be journalists that he was considering establishing customs from more than 25% on imports of cars, medicines and semiconductors . For the automotive sector, the American president said he will give more information “probably this on April 2, but it will be around 25%”. On semiconductors and the pharmaceutical industry, “it will be 25% and more, and it will increase considerably during a year,” he added.

“Electronics, automobile and pharmaceutical products are the three groups in which the United States accuse the largest trade deficit, so it is not surprising that they are targeted. It remains to be seen which of these rates Will be implemented, but there are now a lot of tiering plaques in play, “explains Deutsche Bank.

Voluntary, anti-immigration and ultra protectionism policy is deemed inflationary for a great fringe of economists. The Fed in any case needs to clarity on customs duties before considering a next drop in its guiding rates.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Thursday, to follow in priority the weekly registrations for unemployment benefits and the “Philly Fed at 2:30 pm. It will be necessary to wait until 4:00 pm to learn about crude stocks across the Atlantic.

At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against $ 1,0430 approximately. As for the American 10 years, he remained camped on 4.50%.

Key graphics elements

The continuous 50 -day (in orange) mobile average constitutes a solid technical and graphic barrier. In the shorter term, it is even his counterpart at 20 days (in dark blue) that officiates as a dynamic resistance. And this without the RSI oscillator positioning itself in the occurrence zone. In the immediate future, the pair of currencies traces, in the upper part of the Bollinger bands, a negative structure in harami. Once the parity is perfect, namely $ 1 for a €, an energetic buyer of protest can then be set up.

Medium term

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).

Our entry point is 1,0439 USD. The price of course in our lowering scenario is 1,0001 USD. To preserve the committed capital, we advise you to position a protection stop at 1,0611 USD.

The profitability hope of this Forex strategy is 438 pips and the risk of loss is 172 pips.

Daily data graphics