CAC 40: Consolidation close to zeniths

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CAC 40 will legitimately “consolidated” on Monday (-0.78%), when the Dax took 0.60% in the wake of the results of the anticipated legislative elections in Germany. These elections did not reserve a big surprise. The Conservatives, namely the CDU/CSU are, as expected, clearly brought out in mind, with 28.52% of the votes. According to ZDFILS public television is ahead of the far-right party, AFD (20.80%) , Socialists (SPD), credited with a score of 16.41%, as well as environmentalists (11.61%) and “Die Linke”, a party of Radical left, at 8.77%.

The markets may hope that these results lead to a government which will take measures favorable to the economy, while Germany remains over two years of decline in its GDP. “The final composition of the coalition is not yet clear, but it is likely that it is favorable to a certain budgetary relaxation, which would be good news for actions”, judge Barclays.

Hope with the new coalition, which will most likely be directed by Friedrich Merz, is that of an investment vice loosening, softening the budget gold rule which prevailed under Olaf Scholz.

But “the implications for the market should be limited, because a modification of the rule of” debt brake “remains possible, but it is unlikely that it is materialized before next year, if not anymore late “, for David Zahn, head of European bond management at Franklin Templeton.

In any case, the prospect of an increase in the defense budget across the Rhine supported in Paris Thalès (+1.89%), and Dassault Aviation (+3.33%). To be complete on the values ​​side, Schneider Electric melted by 6.92%, after a note from TDCOWEN reported that Microsoft has abandoned data centers capacity rental contracts. Which casts a doubt on the growth of Data CentersKey segment for society. Same mechanics for Legrand, who reflected by 3.45%.

In the statistical chapter, operators have read consumer prices (ICC) in final data for the month of January, in the euro zone. Excluding food, energy, alcohol and tobacco, prices raised up 2.7% at an annual rate, in accordance with the first estimates.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares finished the session of Monday in dispersed order, the Dow Jones grappling 0.08% and the Nasdaq composite backing up by 1.21%. The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, contracted by 0.50%, ironing below the symbolic threshold of 6,000 points.

A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,0470. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 71.10.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Tuesday, to follow the consumer confidence index (Conference Board) at 4:00 p.m. Tuesday.

Key graphics elements

We attended a major technical and graphic fact Thursday January 16 with crossing on Gap then extension in session, from the pivot threshold of the 7,500 points, which finds its support attributes. The current work base therefore becomes a band between 7,500 and 7,690 points, in which a certain form of volatility is far from excluded.

This crossing was immediately followed by a new GAP (less ample) and a bullish extension in session, with the participation of many sectors, marking the assertion of the buyer camp.

A first manifestation of a need for courses breathing was illustrated on Wednesday with a high shadow on the candle, on a level close to the 7,800 points, the first palpable obstacle since the rush crossing of 7,465/7,500 points. Between 7,900 and 8,000 points, the flagship index comes into a very short -term over -rascal zone, premises a consolidation entry.

The index just flirted with the 8,000 symbolic points on Friday 24 and 31/01 and reflected on Monday 27/01 and 03/02. Both doji Indecision traced at the heart of the week are a marker of a wait -and -see attitude, and therefore of a precarious balance, at the start of consolidation. This balance was broken from the beginning of February, by a large -scale gap.

The 8,000 symbolic points were crossed in week 7 with confirmation in “Hebdo” data. Since then, the lessons have hesitated between the 8,000 points and the historic records at 8,260 points.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

We will take care to note that a crossing of the 8230.00 points would revive the tension to the purchase. While a break in the 8000.00 points would relaunch the sales pressure.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics