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The euro did not finally manage to finish the game against the dollar in the process of the anticipated legislative elections in Germany.
“The victory of the CDU/CSU in Germany is positive for the markets”, advances César Perez Ruiz, responsible for investments and CIO at Pictet Wealth Management: “a modest budgetary expansion remains possible, despite the risk of seeing the small parties constitute a blocking minority. Stability, a two-group coalition associating the CDU/CSU and the SPD (Social Democrats) is profile. “
Especially since, as Thomas GIUDICI, head of bond management of Auris Gestion, underlines, “the failure of the FDP (Liberal) and the BSW (Populists on the left) to return to Parliament should facilitate the constitution of a coalition. Our German friends are generally more effective than us in this exercise. “
The main issue is naturally a softening, even the end of the budgetary “golden rule” which had the effect of a camisole during the mandate of O Scholze. A modification of the rule of “debt brake” remains possible, but it is unlikely that it will materialize until next year, if not later “wishes to qualify David Zahn, responsible for European bond management at Franklin Templeton.
The German industry, erected as a model, although still powerful, has lost its superb in recent years, during which “the main pillars of the Germany growth model have been more and more weakened. This model rested On a globalized and secure world, where exchanges were relatively free. affected Germany “, for Lowie DEBOU, fixed in Fund Manager at DPAM.
The CDU-CSU should ally themselves with other parties to form a government coalition. Economists believe that the most likely scenario remains that of a large coalition between the CDU/CSU and the SPD (socialist). Environmentalists could possibly join the government, which would lead to a so-called “Kenya” coalition (Black-Vert-Rouge, the colors of the three parties).
Furthermore, the traders monitor Ukraine, while the French president, e Macron, is traveling in Washington to try to replace Europe in diplomatic game, in this case that of peace negotiations in Ukraine, or Otherwise a ceasefire or a truce in the fights. “I think she [une trêve] could be concluded in the coming weeks, “said the French president, in an interview on Foxnews.
Statistically on Monday, the trades learned of consumer prices (ICC) in final data for the month of January, in the euro zone. Excluding food, energy, alcohol and tobacco, prices raised up 2.7% at an annual rate, in accordance with the first estimates. To be continued at 4:00 p.m. on Tuesday the sacrosanct consumer confidence index (Conference Board), expected in very slight contraction at 102.7. This is the main meeting this Tuesday, an appointment which will allow to gauge, after the U-Mich index and the PMI barometers, of a possible point of influencing in health, still flourishing at this stage, of The American economy.
At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against $ 1,0470 approximately.
Key graphics elements
The continuous 50 -day (in orange) mobile average constitutes a solid technical and graphic barrier. In the shorter term, it is even his counterpart at 20 days (in dark blue) that officiates as a dynamic resistance. And this without the RSI oscillator positioning itself in the occurrence zone. In the immediate future, the pair of currencies traces, in the upper part of the Bollinger bands, a negative structure in harami. Once the parity is perfect, namely $ 1 for a €, an energetic buyer of protest can then be set up.
Medium term
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).
Our entry point is 1,0468 USD. The price of course in our lowering scenario is 1,0001 USD. To preserve the committed capital, we advise you to position a protection stop at 1,0611 USD.
The profitability hope of this Forex strategy is 467 pips and the risk of loss is 143 pips.
The News Bulletin 247 Council
Daily data graphics
I have over 8 years of experience working in the news industry. I have worked as a reporter, editor, and now managing editor at 247 News Agency. I am responsible for the day-to-day operations of the news website and overseeing all of the content that is published. I also write a column for the website, covering mostly market news.
