CAC 40: clear lull on the American 10 years

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The time is for consolidation on the Paris market whose flagship index was contracted on Tuesday 0.49% to fifty points above the 8,000 points threshold. A market that will have been weighted by the technological compartment, with the decreases of CAP Gemini (-2.51%), Wordline (-3.03%), Alten (-3.57%), or Soitec (-5, 46%). And this while Nvidia, the new star of the market shepherd, publishes her quarterly copy this Wednesday. Finally, the drop in morale of the American consumer, as is the reflux of Tesla action will have weighed.

The consumer confidence index (Conference Board) has returned below the 100 point mark, supporting the scenario of an inflection point in the American economy, whose health is still very good. But a succession of indicators (retail sales, U-Mich, or the PMI barometers) suggest a very slight cooling of the machine. What cause a significant drop in American 10 years to 4.30%.

“These American macroeconomic figures had the effect of relaxing the American long rates a little … But that was not of great support for the equity markets, which have rather seen in these figures the risks of a slowdown in consumption consumption And activity in the United States in the coming months, “said Alexandre Baradez for IG France.

“The honeymoon seems to be consumed and the” Trump Trade “now has lead in the wing on the markets. Strong trade uncertainties weigh on the feeling of American companies, and the number of mentions of the word” tarrifs “in publications Business quarterly has never been so high since 2018. “

In addition, operators continue to monitor Ukraine, while the French president, e Macron, is traveling in Washington to try to replace Europe in diplomatic game, in this case that of peace negotiations in Ukraine , or failing that a ceasefire or a truce in the fights. “I think she [une trêve] could be concluded in the coming weeks, “said the French president, in an interview on Foxnews.

To be complete statistically, no difference compared to consensus for the S&P Schiller price of American property prices, an annual increase of 4.5%.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares ended in dispersed order, the Dow Jones grappling 0.37% and the composite Nasdaq abandoning 1.35%. The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, contracted from 0.47% to 5,955 points.

A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,0490. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 69.10. Treasuries 10 years, yield of federal sovereign obligations with 10 years, were negotiated slightly above 4.32%.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Wednesday, to follow in priority sales of new housing in the United States at 4:00 p.m., as well as crude stocks at 4:30 p.m.

Key graphics elements

The tricolor flagship index is typically in the consolidation phase, between the 8,000 symbolic points and the historical summits which it has just brushed. The latter will day for the coming months an intermediate level of resistance, to which the index will attack when it has accumulated enough energy. Only a brutal break in the 7,810 points would ring the alarm.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

This downward scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 rating index below resistance at 8230.00 points.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics