EUR/USD: a major meeting at 2:30 p.m.

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The euro remained under pressure against the dollar, in a climate of contraction of the risk of the risk, and following a series of disappointing American macroeconomic statistics: retail sales, consumer moral, activity barometer in services among others.

Moreover, in the U-Mich study on consumer morale, it appears “that the anticipation of long-term inflation of American consumers has jumped at its highest level since … 1995 !5% on a horizon of 5 to 10 years, it is the highest anticipation in 30 years”, was Alexandre Baradez, responsible for market analysis at IG France. This is only a feeling, and not a reality, but the potential impacts on consumption are real.

It is in this context that the burners will take note this Friday at 2:30 p.m. on the main macroeconomic figure of the day this Friday: PCE prices (personal consumption Expenditures), the Fed predilection measure in its appreciation of inflation, and therefore an essential work base in the construction of its monetary policy.

Economists interviewed by the Wall Street Journal anticipate an increase of 2.6% over a year for January, excluding energy and food prices.

On the European side, the room for maneuver of the ECB is greater. Bovers are also already attentive to the next Council of Governors who will end on March 06. DWS expects this “that the European Central Bank (ECB) will once again lower its deposit rate of 25 base points to bring it to 2.50 % in March, thus marking its sixth consecutive decline. However, the room for maneuver for new rapid reductions seems to be restricting. The opinions within the ECB are increasingly shared on the number of rate to wait in the coming months, Knowing if the current monetary policy is already restrictive. “

At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against $ 1,0405 approximately.

Key graphics elements

The continuous 50 -day (in orange) mobile average constitutes a solid technical and graphic barrier. In the shorter term, it is even his counterpart at 20 days (in dark blue) that officiates as a dynamic resistance. And this without the RSI oscillator positioning itself in the occurrence zone. In the immediate future, the pair of currencies traces, in the upper part of the Bollinger bands, a negative structure in harami. Once the parity is perfect, namely $ 1 for a €, an energetic buyer of protest can then be set up.

Medium term

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).

Our entry point is 1,0404 USD. The price of course in our lowering scenario is 1,0001 USD. To preserve the committed capital, we advise you to position a protection stop at 1,0546 USD.

The profitability hope of this Forex strategy is 403 pips and the risk of loss is 142 pips.

Daily data graphics