CAC 40: What does Trump play?

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How far will Trump go? In a scene of rare violence, the American president humiliated his Ukrainian counterpart, in the oval office, intimating him to sign an agreement on the exploitation of rare land, without the counterparties of security guarantees desired by V Zelensky. Aggress the assaulted, and have the Russian aggressor jubilant, that is in substance the attitude of the former real estate magnate, with which the markets will have to compose this week. London organized a summit of Western allies, a summit whose challenge was to show that the other kyiv allies was united, and to do this, the key was: rearmament.

In addition to this burning geopolitical file, operators are attentive to “macro” publications. On this statistical component- and this explains significant relaxation over the American 10 years- the United States remain on a series of disappointing economic statistical indicators. The Consumer Confidence Index (Conference Board) is in particular ironed below 100 points, supporting the scenario of an inflection point in the American economy, whose health is still very good. But a succession of indicators (retail sales, U-Mich, or the PMI barometers) suggest a very slight cooling of the machine.

Moreover, in the U-Mich study on consumer morale, it appears “that the anticipation of long-term inflation of American consumers has jumped at its highest level since … 1995 !5% on a horizon of 5 to 10 years, it is the highest anticipation in 30 years”, was Alexandre Baradez, responsible for market analysis at IG France. This is only a feeling, and not a reality, but the potential impacts on consumption are real.

Investors took note of “PCE” prices on Friday, for Personal consumption ExpendituresThe flagship of the Fed predilection in its appreciation of inflation. In annual rate, excluding food and energy, prices increased by 2.6%, without gap compared to market expectations. On the other hand, the disappointment is large on the side of household expenditure, in contraction of 0.2% in January, where consensus suggested an increase of 0.2%.

The inflation rate “is still too high to the Fed taste and, taking into account the accumulation of customs inflationary measures, we maintain our opinion according to which the rate reductions are not on the agenda this year”, Capital Economics.

Pending the next FED’s next decision, the European Central Bank will complete this week a new council of governors. The German asset management company DWS expects that “the European Central Bank (ECB) will once again lower its deposit rate of 25 base points to bring it to 2.50 % in March, thus marking its sixth consecutive decline. However, the room for maneuver for new rapid reductions seems to be limited. The opinions within the ECB are increasingly shared on the number of rate to come in the coming month, Their pace of application and the question of whether the current monetary policy is already restrictive. “

On the values ​​side, the equipment supplier forvia (ex-Faurecia) collapsed on the stock market, plunging almost 23%, undermined by disappointing prospects for 2025. It is especially the deleveraging trajectory that scares market operators. The sanction is lively, but less violent for Valeo (-11.2%) after the publication of his copy. By mimicry, Optomability lost 3.91%. Conversely, Virid (ex-CGG) has soared 21%, after its annual publication.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares finished the Friday session in the green, like the Dow Jones (+1.39%) and the Nasdaq Composite (+1.63%). The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, increased by 1.59% to 5,954 points.

A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,0410. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 69.90. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.23%.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Monday, to follow the final data of industrial PMIs in the euro zone at 10:00 am, as well as the American manufacturer at 4:00 p.m.

Key graphics elements

The tricolor flagship index is typically in the consolidation phase, between the 8,000 symbolic points and the historical summits which it has just brushed. The latter will day for the coming months an intermediate level of resistance, to which the index will attack when it has accumulated enough energy. Only a brutal break in the 7,810 points would ring the alarm. Work between 7,810 and 8,000 points in the coming weeks is the favorite graphic scenario.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

This downward scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 rating index below resistance at 8230.00 points.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics