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After flirting with its historical summits on Monday, the steam suddenly reversed on Tuesday. In question, the freezing return of the specter of a world -scale trade war, after the execution by Drump of part of his threats.
The American administration thus implemented customs from customs on imports from Mexico, Canada on Tuesday, up to 25% for these two countries, as well as on those of China, up to 10%. Both Ottawa and Beijing have decided to retaliate by announcing customs duties in turn.
“The specter of a real trade war is looming again, threatening to stifle global economic growth at the very moment when investors were starting to regain confidence,” said Stephen Innes of Spi Am.
American customs duties on European imports should follow soon. If 25% customs surcharge should be implemented, European GDP could be reduced by 1 percentage point, according to Deutsche Bank.
What cause a temperature rise on the Vix*, the index of fear, which constitutes a reliable barometer of the nervousness of operators, and therefore, of the risk that asset carriers take. And this while the United States, since mid-January, have been on a series of relatively disappointing macroeconomic indicators, at least significantly in expectations. The Consumer Confidence U-Mich index and retail monthly sales are very representative examples. Anxiety therefore rises from a notch while the publication of the monthly federal report on private employment (excluding agriculture), on Friday, the famous NFP.
In the statistical chapter, little to put in the tooth on Tuesday. Note that the unemployment rate in the euro zone, awaited stable at 6.3% of the active population, dropped down to 6.2%.
On the values ​​side, the session was black for the automobile in the broad sense, manufacturers and equipment manufacturers. American manufacturers (as well as European groups present in the United States) import a large part of their volumes marketed in the United States of Mexico or Canada. Beyond finished vehicles, automobile supply groups also in these two countries for equipment and parts.
Renault, less exposed than the other rates listed in Paris, lost 4.61%, while the sanction is much more harsh for Opthobility (-8.91%), Stellantis (-10.1%), Valeo (-10.7%) and Forvia (-12.3%). The former Fuarecia already plunged more than 22% on Friday in the wake of his annual copy, making investors doubt about his deleveraging trajectory.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares closed in the red on Tuesday, like the Dow Jones (-1.55%) and the Nasdaq Composite (-0.35%). The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, contracted 1.22% to 5,778 points.
A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,0640. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 67.50. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.23%.
At the macroeconomic agenda this Wednesday, to follow the final data of PMI services in the euro zone at 10:00 am and the results of the US employment survey at 2:15 p.m.
Key graphics elements
The tricolor flagship index is typically in the consolidation phase, between the 8,000 symbolic points and the historical summits which it has just brushed. The latter will day for the coming months an intermediate level of resistance, to which the index will attack when it has accumulated enough energy. Only a brutal break in the 7,810 points would ring the alarm. Work between 7,810 and 8,000 points in the coming weeks is the favorite graphic scenario.
FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
This downward scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 rating index below resistance at 8260.00 points.
The News Bulletin 247 Council
Hourly data graphics
Daily data graphics
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