CAC 40: IFO and Conference Board on the menu

(BFM Stock Exchange) – This article, with free access, is produced by the research team in BFM Stock Exchange analysis and market strategy. To not miss any opportunity, consult all of the analyzes and discover our portfolios by accessing our privilege space.

The market continues to sail, not without a certain swell, as it becomes clear – or seem to specify! – The encrypted customs measures of the White House. The CAC 40 index contracted 0.26% to 8,022 points on Monday, getting closer to the technically important threshold of the 8,000 points, once the week’s graphic issue.

“Uncertainty has probably been the dominant factor for the evolution of actions in the past four weeks. In fact, the persistent vagueness surrounding the impact of policies committed by the US administration has caused shock waves on all world markets. Supported by the good performance of the economy and the hope of a cease-fire between Russia and Ukraine, European actions have nevertheless continued to outperformer.” Geoffroy Goenen, head of the management of European actions at Candriam

The equity markets have taken note of Donald Trump’s last decision, which blows hot and cold on customs duties. The American president announced customs duties of 25% against any country buying Venezuelan oil, from April 2, when he decreed as a “day of the liberation”.

The investors learned yesterday of the “PMI” (Purchasing Managers Index). These activity barometers, essential for trade, are calculated as a reminder after counting of surveys passed with a panel of purchasing directors, hence their predictive character. This morning was preliminary data for the current month. If the PMI of the Services came to 50.4, that of industrial activities beat the target, at 48.7, although still below the threshold of the 50 points which separates by construction, an expansion of a contraction of the sector considered.

Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, brought the following lighting: “coinciding with the arrival of spring, we observe signs of renewal in the manufacturing sector. If it is prudent does not overestimate the impact of a punctual result, it is however encouraging to note that production has increased for the first time since March 2023 and variable has straightened up for a third consecutive month. “

“This growth in manufacturers’ activity has also been accompanied by a clear slowdown in the folds of new orders and employment. If it can be argued that this improvement is explained by a temporary rebound in imports from the United States, linked to customs rights, the will of Europe to invest massively in defense and infrastructure – in Germany, an exceptional and historic budget was approved last week – supported in the coming months. “

At 50.2, the German component of services is however disappointing, the consensus stands at 52.3.

On the values ​​side, Ubisoft (+7.78%) benefited from the support of an analysis office. TP ICAP Midcap raises its target at 30 euros against 28 euros and remains with purchase. Thales climbed 2% while UBS noted his opinion on the purchase on the company. Another defense group present on the Parisian coast, Dassault Aviation won 1.2%. Virid, the ex-CGG won 3.1%, benefiting from an increase in opinion from Barclays who went to “online weighting” against “under-ponder”. Valneva took 5% after announcing that he would deliver in April 40,000 doses of his anti-chikungunya vaccine to combat the spread of the virus on Reunion Island.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares finished in the green the first session of the week, like the Dow Jones (+1.42%) or the Nasdaq Composite (+2.27%). The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, gained 1.76% at 5,767 points.

A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,0790. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 68.90. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.33%. As for the VIX, it was worth 17.50 at the last fence of the S & P500.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Tuesday, to follow the IFO trust in the German economy at 10:00 am and the Conference Board of American households at 3:00 p.m.

It should be noted that the east coast of the United States has passed in the summer hour. Consequently, and while waiting for mainland France in turn, Wall Street will open at 2:30 p.m., instead of 3:30 p.m. usually.

Key graphics elements

The tricolor flagship index is typically in the consolidation phase, between the 8,000 symbolic points and the historical summits which it has just brushed. The latter will day for the coming months an intermediate level of resistance, to which the index will attack when it has accumulated enough energy. Only a brutal break in the 7,810 points would ring the alarm.

Consequently, work between 7,810 and 8,000 points in the coming weeks is the graphic scenario of favorite. Scenario fully confirmed by the rupture, in growing volatility, of the 8,000 points on March 11. The RSI, an oscillator for breathtaking movement, is still far from its occurrence zone.

Under the 7,810 points, the technical situation would deteriorate somewhat, with in particular the effect of attraction of gaps formed in January, especially that of the 16, very large.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

We will take care to note that a crossing of the 8260.00 points would revive the tension to the purchase. While a break in the 7810.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics