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The Euro / Dollar continued its lateralization movement, near short mobile averages, still against the backdrop of a customs problem.
The United States will establish additional customs duties of 25% on all automotive imports from April 3. Global taxation will increase to 27.5%. This rate will also apply to trucks and key parts of cars, such as engines, or electrical components. The spare parts will be taxed within a longer period, namely by May 3. Donald Trump also threatened the European Union and Canada with additional customs duties if they came to coordinate to retaliate to these customs surcharges. “The volatility of the market has been re -expressed by customs taxes on the automobile” observes UBS.
Trump “said this measure would promote growth in the automotive industry by encouraging companies to set up more factories in the United States,” said the Swiss bank. “However, customs duties could also disrupt supply chains, discourage investments and considerably increase consumer prices, while risking triggering commercial conflicts with Europe, Japan and South Korea,” she adds.
“The shock of uncertainty surrounding the commercial policy under the second term of Donald Trump is unprecedented and exceeds that observed during his first mandate. This uncertainty affects investment decisions, inventory management and more general economic forecasts, resulting in the downward revision of anticipations concerning American growth and thus fueling a negative feedback loop”, for Nadège Dufossé, At Candriam.
“The most worrying no doubt is the unpredictable nature of the implementation of these policies, making the risk assessment and the valuations extremely difficult. Several factors combine with each other and potentiate themselves to create more negative effects, affecting the confidence of businesses and households and distinguishing the fears of a” Trumpcession “.
For its part, the euro remains in vice between on the one hand, a significant contraction of appetite for the risk and the positive influence of the sudden loosening of the German budget belt.
“The structural changes in fiscal policy in Europe, more particularly in Germany, are surely important factors that have triggered the Haussier movement of the single currency. Although the announced plans are still preliminary, they reflect a growing will of European leaders to increase military spending in response to the reduction of the United States’s commitment to European defense affairs and Ukraine,” Investment Officer at UBS WM France.
In the statistical chapter on Wednesday, investors learned of the orders of lasting goods, in a very lively monthly increase (+0.7%, excluding transport equipment), largely beating the target.
The main meeting the day before was the sacrosanct index of Conference Board of household confidence (understanding: consumers!) Outrelated. An important benchmark at a time when inflationary fears of Trump’s expansionist and anti-immigration policy weigh on the morale of buyers. The indicator missed expectations, going from 100.1 to 92.9.
This Thursday, relating to good news to report on American growth in the fourth quarter, at +0.4% in final data against 0.3% in the first estimate. As for weekly registrations for unemployment benefits, they “point” to 224,000, perfectly in the target defined by consensus.
At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against $ 1,0780 approximately.
Key graphics elements
The crossing in significant volatility of $ 1,0608 changes the situation on the configuration of the currency pair, which has just validated a resumption of support on a long mobile average, at 50 days (in orange), which begins a resource figure. The scenario of a fast melting towards the perfect parity (€ 1 = $ 1) is invalidated. This consolidation comes in terminal phase in contact with the mobile average at 20 days (in dark blue), on the tightening background of Bollinger strips.
Medium term
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).
We will keep this neutral opinion as long as the courses of Euro Dollar parity (EURUSD) are positioned between the support at 1,0608 USD and the resistance to 1,1012 USD.
The News Bulletin 247 Council
Daily data graphics
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