CAC 40: The automobile suffers, on both sides of the Atlantic and the Pacific

(BFM Stock Exchange) – This article, with free access, is produced by the research team in BFM Stock Exchange analysis and market strategy. To not miss any opportunity, consult all of the analyzes and discover our portfolios by accessing our privilege space.

The CAC index (-0.51%) is repassed symbolically under the 8,000 points Thursday, the investors remaining particularly anxious, while the White House continues to blow hot and cold on customs duties which will be applied to the products entering the American territory, coming from its immediate Canadian and Mexican neighbors, Europe and the main Asian powers. Enough to reshape international trade in which the rules of the game have not been changed for a quarter of a century and the entry of China into the WTO.

The United States will establish additional customs duties of 25% on all automotive imports from April 3. Global taxation will increase to 27.5%. This rate will also apply to trucks and key parts of cars, such as engines, or electrical components. The spare parts will be taxed within a longer period, namely by May 3.

Donald Trump also threatened the European Union and Canada with additional customs duties if they came to coordinate to retaliate to these customs surcharges. “Market volatility has been re -expressed [sic] by customs taxes on the automobile “observes UBS.

President Trump “said this measure would promote growth in the automotive industry by encouraging companies to set up more factories in the United States,” said the Swiss bank.

“However, customs duties could also disrupt supply chains, discourage investments and considerably increase consumer prices, while risking triggering commercial conflicts with Europe, Japan and South Korea,” she adds.

Stellantis suffered unsurprisingly from the announcement of customs duties, and sold 4.25% while Renault gained 0.55%. The diamond group is absent from the American market or, more precisely, is only indirectly exposed to it via its participation in Nissan. On the side of pneumaticians, Michelin won 2.2%, while Clermontoise is one of the least at risk groups, because less than 15% of its sales made in the United States are imported from Mexico or Canada, also with imports from very limited Europe.

To be complete on the values ​​side, Air France-KLM sold 4.3% weighted by a change of recommendation from Deutsche Bank which went to “sell” on the value. The German bank fears that economic pressures come to hinder the progress of the Franco-Dutch company. Trigano dropped 11% sanctioned for revealing a disappointing half -yearly activity and degraded perspectives.

In the statistical chapter Thursday, relative good news to report concerning American growth in the fourth quarter, at +0.4% in final data against 0.3% in the first estimate. As for weekly registrations for unemployment benefits, they “point” to 224,000, perfectly in the target defined by consensus.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares ended the Red Thursday session, like the Dow Jones (-0.37%) and the Nasdaq Composite (-0.53%). The S & P500, reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, dropped 0.33% to 5,693 points.

A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,0780. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 69.60. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.33%. As for the VIX, it was worth 18.70 at the last fence of the S & P500.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Thursday, to follow in priority the favorite barometer of the Fed in its appreciation of inflation, namely the PCE index (Personal Consumption Index).

It should be noted that the east coast of the United States has passed in the summer hour. Consequently, and while waiting for mainland France in turn, Wall Street will open at 2:30 p.m., instead of 3:30 p.m. usually.

Key graphics elements

The tricolor flagship index is typically in the consolidation phase, between the 8,000 symbolic points and the historical summits which it has just brushed. The latter will day for the coming months an intermediate level of resistance, to which the index will attack when it has accumulated enough energy. Only a brutal break in the 7,810 points would ring the alarm.

Consequently, work between 7,810 and 8,000 points in the coming weeks is the graphic scenario of favorite. Scenario fully confirmed by the rupture, in growing volatility, of the 8,000 points on March 11. The RSI, an oscillator for breathtaking movement, is still far from its occurrence zone.

Under the 7,810 points, the technical situation would deteriorate somewhat, with in particular the effect of attraction of gaps formed in January, especially that of the 16, very large.

Again, the 8,000 points are the technical issue of the week.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

This downward scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 rating index below resistance at 8260.00 points.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics