(BFM Stock Exchange) – After fleeing for the past two years, the courses of one of the flagship breakfast beverages have been accusing a historic fall since the start of the year. The long -term contract on the concentrate of orange juice drops more than 50% over the period.

Several raw materials have been progressing since the start of the year. In mid-March, gold courses have taken for the first time in their history, the symbolic milestone of the $ 3,000 on the ounce, when those of copper have been working by 30% since the start of the year, in advance of American customs duties on red metal.

A raw material, edible this time, remains away from this flight flight. They even have a big blow since the start of the year. These are the courses of the frozen concentrate of orange juice, a raw material essential for the drink, and which serve as reference.

The term contract on raw material has released more than 50% since January 1, from $ 5.26 per book to less than 2.50 dollars, reports the Financial Times.

According to Bloomberg, if this decreases were to be maintained at the end of the month, it would be the highest quarterly variation ever recorded since 1967.

This decrease also testifies to a violent reversal of trend on the raw material. Last year, the course of the orange juice revised records due to tensions on the offer, that is to say on the production of oranges.

It had then been disturbed by extreme metrological phenomena in the main producing countries, such as Brazil, as well as by the “yellow dragon disease”, which had decimated the crops. It is caused by a bacteria transmitted by insects similar to aphids, and leads fruit trees to produce smaller and bitter fruits and often unfit for sale.

Besides, the demand had exploded after the Cavid-19 pandemic, consumers seeking to strengthen their vitamin C contribution with the precious orange drink.

A bitter taste

Unsurprisingly, this outbreak of courses was passed on to the cash receipt of the final consumer. Ultimately, the demand ended up being caught up in these price increases, which inevitably weighed on the courses of the frozen concentrate.

Especially since, beyond the rates in stores, consumer demand has been penalized by another problem. “The low quality of orange juice and limited demand due to high price levels led to high price drops on the international market at the start of 2025,” said the Brazilian Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economy (CEPEA) in a note published on March 17.

Due to the diseases that affected orange trees, the quality of the fruit has dropped sharply, with bitter -taste oranges. “If the taste is a little more bitter, it will worsen the problem [de la demande]”, told Financial Times Andrés Padilla, analyst at Rabobank.” With so few harvests, the crushers had to take all the oranges that arrived, it decreased the quality – if you do not have stocks, you cannot really mix them to obtain [fruits] of better quality “, continues the analyst.

The Cepea also pointed out that the sugar/acid ratio of the oranges had fallen below the optimal level for grinding, which harms the quality of the juice. Normally, orange juice manufacturers manage to erase the differences in taste from one season to another by mixing stocks of frozen orange juice – the lifespan of which is two years – from the previous season with those of the new harvest, explains the Financial Times. But this sleight of hand has limits. These three consecutive years of lowering of the offer have indeed come to exhaust the stocks of the citrus.

In addition to this drop in demand, prices fall by anticipation of more abundant harvests in Brazil, also points to Andrés Padilla. The next orange harvest campaign which begins in July could be up 20% compared to next year, explains the specialist in the Financial Times, thanks to larger precipitation in the country.

However, this drop in courses will not immediately benefit the end consumer. Most distributors have signed supply contracts when the orange juice courses were at the highest, the financial media Harry Campbell, a specialized raw materials at Expana, explained to the financial media.

According to the expert, this situation prevents any immediate drop in prices for consumers for the time being. Demand is therefore low for the moment, because the ray prices remain at high levels.