EUR/USD: customs barriers, Donad is heavily

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The euro, as much under pressure as the dollar as part of the intense trade war caused by the White House, continued its lateralization movement, near the $ 1,0820 on Monday. Bover continues to digest the latest American inflation figures within the meaning of the PCE (Personal Consumption Index), the Fed’s favorite measure in its appreciation of price dynamics. These prices increased by 0.4% monthly in February, above a 0.3% consensus. “Figures which immediately aroused the concern of the markets, already largely disrupted by the Trump administration’s pricing policy,” explained Grégoire Kounowski Investment Advisor at Norman K. “Especially since in parallel the consumer feeling of the University of Michigan was established at 57 (against 57.9 expected and 64.7 last month), proof of the low confidence of American consumers the economy.

“Caution remains in turn while the next step arrives on April 2,” insists the manager in asset management. “A date that Donald Trump qualifies in advance as” Liberation Day “. In addition to the price measures already applied, this day must mark the entry into force of reciprocal customs duties, but also the 25% of additional customs duties on vehicles and car spare parts produced outside the United States, or the end of the exemption from 25% tariffs for Canada and Mexico.

“Measures that could further reduce Fed’s room for maneuver regarding new rate drops.” Estimating the number of times the Fed will lower its rates this year is now a mission impossible to the chagrin of the markets, which by nature hate their functioning, uncertainty.

The procrastination, the brutal threats, then the sudden reculades of Donald Trump on customs duties begin to tire the morale of the operators by weighing on the appetite for the risk. Tokyo, as a non -exhaustive example, plunged 4% at the fence, while the VIX, the fear index suddenly ironed the 20 points mark.

“In two days, the American administration will celebrate the” Liberation Day “which aims to impose new customs taxes. A universal tax was planned in the first version. Finally, according to the American press, a more targeted approach could be adopted-the conditional is important. Only the imposing countries of customs taxes and presenting a trade deficit with the United States would be targeted. The EU, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Canada, India and China, “peels Christopher Dembik, investment strategy advisor at Pictet AM.

This trade war initiated by Donald Trump “is the beginning of a march towards independence” of Europe, said this Monday on France Inter the president of the European Central Bank (ECB) Christine Lagarde.

In this context of uncertainty about the trade policy of the United States, Christine Lagarde also added that “inflation is an everyday fight”. “To say that it’s over is behind us, no, because unfortunately, we are subject to lots of uncertainty,” said Christine Lagarde who refers to Donald Trump’s decisions on American customs duties. It is in this particular context that operators will also gain knowledge this Monday inflation figures in Germany for the month of March.

To be continued statistically this Monday, the PMI industrial activity barometer of Chicago at 3:45 p.m.

At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against $ 1,0820 approximately.

Key graphics elements

The crossing in significant volatility of $ 1,0608 changes the situation on the configuration of the currency pair, which has just validated a resumption of support on a long mobile average, at 50 days (in orange), which begins a resource figure. The scenario of a fast melting towards the perfect parity (€ 1 = $ 1) is invalidated. This consolidation comes in terminal phase in contact with the mobile average at 20 days (in dark blue), on the tightening background of Bollinger strips.

Medium term

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).

We will keep this neutral opinion as long as the EURO Dollar parity prices (EURUSD) are positioned between the support at 1,0758 USD and the resistance to USD 1,1012.

Daily data graphics