CAC 40: Trump deploys his customs herses, using fallacious arguments

(BFM Stock Exchange) – This article, with free access, is produced by the research team in BFM Stock Exchange analysis and market strategy. To not miss any opportunity, consult all of the analyzes and discover our portfolios by accessing our privilege space.

Donald Trump has made his threat, and plunged international trade into a new era. Yesterday, Wednesday April 02, the day of the “Liberation” promised for months by the tenant of the White House, will indeed be date, as little glorious as it is … During a press conference in Washington, the real estate magnate exhibited a sign with three columns: the first, with the geographic areas for as many commercial “partners”, the second with customs taxes that he says. Third with the taxes he will now impose on the entrance to products on his territory.

Fallaious second column where you could read 90% for Vietnam, 46% for Japan, or 39% for the European Union. “A calculation that does not respond to any known and admitted economic equation”, for our colleagues from the world who have succeeded in “cracking the code: the Trump administration simply divided the American bilateral trade deficit with these countries by the amount of exports of these countries in the United States. Thus, the trade deficit (for goods, outside services) of the United States with the European Union was 235 billion dollars in 2024, Exported $ 605 billion in goods in the United States the same year.

For the third column, which interests the markets to the highest point, these are Customs surcharges adding to existing barriers: 34% for China, 20% for the European Union, 24% for Japan, 26% for IndiaFor example. And this with a 10% floor for all countries of the world. Never since the 1930s, customs barriers had been so high. A rhetoric of the fortress was developed by D Trump in the gardens of the White House. “Our country has been looted, devastated and ransacked by enemy but also allied nations,” he complained to justify this brutal increase in importation of imports. And to create according to him the conditions for an industrial renewal, thanks to the relocation of factories to the United States. “Any response from the countries concerned will cause climbing customs duties,” threatened the subtle 47th President of the United States.

In the process, the main indices of Wall Street, after Stock Exchange, therefore on the “future”, plunged in bright red, of the order of 4% for the Nasdaq 100.

Yesterday on the statistical side, the markets, anxious, still took care to dissect the ADP (Automatic Data Processing) report on employment, published two days before the NFP (non -Farm Payrolls). According to the survey, 155,000 jobs were created last month, against a consensus of 120,000 and after 84,000 in February. In addition, industrial orders increased more than scheduled in February, climbing 0.6% when the consensus tapped on growth of 0.5%.

On the values ​​side, Pernod Ricard finished at the top of the CAC 40 (+1.6%), thanks to the support of Berenberg who started monitoring the value with a recommendation to “buy” and a course goal at 114 euros. Second highest increase in the Parisian index, Engie (+1.5%), for its part, took advantage of the support of Jefferies which went to buy on the title with a target of course at 20 euros. On the side of the small and medium capitalizations, Obiz dropped 13.9%, after having warned the market that he will not reach his objective of Ebitda for 2024.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares finished Wednesday in the green – it was before the verdict of customs duties. The Dow Jones won 0.56% and the Nasdaq Composite 0.87%. The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, displayed a gain of 0.67% to 5,670 points.

A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,0,900. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 69.90. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.05%. As for the VIX, it was worth 21.51 at the last fence of the S & P500. He should explode up the next fence.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Thursday, to follow the final data of the PMI services in the euro zone at 10:00 am, the weekly registrations for unemployment benefits in the United States at 2:30 p.m. and the ISM services at 4:00 p.m.

Key graphics elements

The technical framework evolves, with a break in the psychological pivot threshold of the 8,000 points at the end of the week 13. This rupture is not formally supported by volumes and a sectoral federation, or even a GAP, but it is sufficiently symbolic to cause a loss of progressive confidence in the spirits. Major questioning, in progress for several weeks, can now result in a continuation of the reflux under the long mobile average at 50 days (in orange). The GAP attraction effect of January 16 (low terminal at 7,514 points) will now be felt.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

This downward scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 rating index below resistance at 8000.00 points.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics