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The dollar, reference currency of international trade in the last 80 years, lost its superb in the context of the intense trade war waged by Donald Trump. Yesterday at a press conference in Washington, the real estate magnate exhibited a sign with three columns: the first, with the geographic areas for as many commercial “partners”, the second with the customs taxes which he says undergoes from his partners, and the third with the taxes he will now impose on the entrance to the products on his territory.
Fallaious second column where you could read 90% for Vietnam, 46% for Japan, or 39% for the European Union. “A calculation that does not respond to any known and admitted economic equation”, for our colleagues from the world who have succeeded in “cracking the code: the Trump administration simply divided the American bilateral trade deficit with these countries by the amount of exports of these countries in the United States. Thus, the trade deficit (for goods, outside services) of the United States with the European Union was 235 billion dollars in 2024, Exported $ 605 billion in goods in the United States the same year.
For the third column, which interests the markets at the highest point, these are customs surcharges adding to existing barriers: 34% for China, 20% for the European Union, 24% for Japan, 26% for India, for example. And this with a 10% floor for all countries of the world. Never since the 1930s, customs barriers had been so high. A rhetoric of the fortress was developed by D Trump in the gardens of the White House. “Our country has been looted, devastated and ransacked by enemy but also allied nations,” he complained to justify this brutal increase in importation of imports. And to create according to him the conditions for an industrial renewal, thanks to the relocation of factories to the United States. “Any response from the countries concerned will cause climbing customs duties,” threatened the subtle 47th President of the United States.
“The higher customs duties should be implemented on April 9, which leaves a certain room for maneuver for a short-term de-escalation. The white house information sheet suggests that tariff rates could be reduced in exchange for commercial concessions or a wider alignment with the United States” on economic and national security questions “”, comment on nomisura economists.
The fall of the dollar is to be linked with the reflux of American sovereign rates which “fell significantly after the announcements of Donald Trump,” said Alexandre Baradez, IG France market analyst. “The 10 -year rate went from 4.23% to 4.04% in a few hours. Why this fallback from American rates when taxes are potentially inflationary at the time of their implementation? Because markets are evaluating the risk, for the American economy, of these measures, and in particular the risk of contraction of the economy, or even recession …”
The dollar index plunged 2.14% in the wake of these customs announcements.
To be continued on the macroeconomic component, weekly registrations for unemployment benefits in the United States at 2:30 p.m. as well as the ISM services at 4:00 p.m. Yesterday the markets, anxious, still took care to dissect the ADP (Automatic Data Processing) report on employment, published two days before the NFP (Non farm payrolls). According to the survey, 155,000 jobs were created last month, against a consensus of 120,000 and after 84,000 in February. In addition, industrial orders increased more than scheduled in February, climbing 0.6% when the consensus tapped on growth of 0.5%.
In the immediate future, the PMI services barometer in the euro zone in final data for the month of March emerged at 51.0, beyond the first estimates.
Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at the Hamburg Commercial Bank brought the following lighting: “The economy of the euro zone seemed, at the end of 2024, engaging on the channel of the recession, the situation was however generally stabilized at the beginning of 2025. The composite PMI index has notably established (just) in positive territory for a third consecutive month. Customs American could, however, switch the region’s economy in the contraction zone.
At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against $ 1.1090 approximately.
Key graphics elements
After the very clear crossing of $,0608 the pair of currencies had entered a long -range lateralization phase, a phase now finished. A bullish outing is in full expression, even though the Bollinger bands go away strongly.
Medium term
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is positive in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).
Our entry point is 1,1090 USD. The course of course in our Haussier scenario is 1,1790 USD. To preserve the committed capital, we advise you to position a protection stop at 1,0890 USD.
The profitability hope of this Forex strategy is 700 pips and the risk of loss is 200 pips.
The News Bulletin 247 Council
Daily data graphics
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