(Reuters) – The World Trade Organization (WTO) strongly revised down on Wednesday its forecast for world trade in goods in 2025, now tabling on a decline rather than growth.

The American customs duties, as well as their contagion effects, could also cause the worst fall in trade since its hollow recorded during the Pandemic of Cavid-19, warned the WTO.

It now anticipates a 0.2% drop in goods trade this year, against growth of 3.0% expected in October. She specifies that this new estimate is based on the situation and the measures already in place at the beginning of this week.

US President Donald Trump has imposed additional customs duties on steel imports and cars in the United States, as well as reciprocal customs duties brought back for 90 days to 10%, a rate presented as “floor”, on a global scale, with the notable exception of China.

According to the WTO, if Donald Trump restored all customs duties as he had announced, the growth in the trade in goods would lose 0.6 percentage points, with another decline of 0.8 points linked to the effects of contagion beyond trade with the United States.

Taken together, these effects could lead to a 1.5% drop in world goods, the strongest since 2020.

“The unprecedented nature of recent changes in trade policy means that forecasts must be interpreted with more caution than usual,” said the WTO, which also provides for a modest recovery of 2.5% in 2026.

Earlier Wednesday, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said that global economic growth could slow down to 2.3% due to trade tensions and uncertainty, which feeds a recessionist trend.

The WTO, based in Geneva, said that trade disruption between the United States and China should increase Chinese goods exports in all regions outside North America, from 4% to 9%.

Other countries would have the opportunity to fill the vacuum left in the United States in sectors such as textiles, clothing and electrical equipment.

The trade in services, although not subject to customs duties, would also be affected, due to a weakening of the demand linked to the trade of goods, such as transport and logistics. Generalized uncertainty could also weigh on expenses related to travel and investment services.

The WTO provides for trade in commercial services of 4.0% in 2025 and 4.1% in 2026, figures significantly lower than the initial projections of 5.1% and 4.8%, respectively.

This slowdown forecast occurs after a dynamic 2024 year during which the volume of the global trade in goods increased by 2.9% and that of commercial services by 6.8%.

(Written by Olivia Le Poidevin and Philip Blenkinsop, Noémie Naudin, edited by Kate Entringer)

Copyright © 2025 Thomson Reuters