CAC 40: The crossing of the roller coasters is not over

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This nervous, and very little playful part of Yoyo continues on the Paris Stock Exchange which continues to oscillate at the rate and the extent of the brutality and the forced retropedlages of Donald Trump on the customs prices which he intends to impose on his commercial partners, China in mind.

The CAC index resumed 2.13% Wednesday at 7,482 points on Wednesday, while the White House clearly softened its speech on customs duties targeting Beijing.

The American president put water in his wine on the customs surcharges inflicted on China (145%) explaining to journalists that these surcharges were “very high” and that “were going to drop substantially”. “They will in no way remain close to this figure,” he said, adding, however, that “we will not come back to zero”.

Chinese Foreign Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Guo Jiakun reacted to this outstretched hand by declaring that the doors were “wide open” to chat with Washington.

In the statistical chapter, the very first estimates of the PMI barometers for the euro zone stand out at contrasting levels, at 48.7 for the manufacturing industry – it is above the consensus), but symbolically under the 50 for the services, at 49.7. Recall that a score less than 50 points represents a contraction of the sector considered.

“The new tax policies of Germany, intended to increase defense and infrastructure spending, and the increase in military spending in several European countries, should however promote, in the long term, a resumption of the service sector,” relativizes Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist in Hamburg Commercial Bank.

On the values ​​side, 36 of the 40 CAC 40 actions finished in the green. Stmicroelectronics, Schneider Electric and Saint-Gobain took more than 4.5%. The highest increase was recorded by Eurofins (+12%), which published an activity that is slightly higher than expectations in the first quarter and warned that it was little threatened by American customs duties. Excluding CAC 40, Opthobility took 8.5% after publishing a good activity of good quality in the first quarter. Oddo BHF evokes “a good start to the year” accompanied by a “reassuring” message.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares have ended up clearly, however at the right distance from the high session points, the initial euphoria having gradually stretched. The Dow Jones managed to preserve 1.07% gain and the Nasdaq composite 2.50%. The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, gained 1.67% at 5,375 points.

A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,1390. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 64.40. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.36%. As for the Vix, it was worth 30.60 at the last fence of the S&P500.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Thursday, to follow the IFO of the business climate in Germany at 10:00 am, and for the United States the orders of lasting goods and weekly registrations for unemployment benefits at 2:30 p.m.

Key graphics elements

The technical framework is upset, with a break in the psychological pivot threshold of the 8,000 points at the end of the week 13. Rupture which was followed by intense clearances, in powerful volumes. The GAP of January 16 is now fully filled, without any reaction from the courses. Worse, a crossing part (7,552 – 7,585 points). In two sessions, Thursday 03 and Friday 04 April, the flagship index lost nearly 520 points, and switched to the red for its assessment since 01/01. Monday April 07, once again showed the extreme psychological tension of a market at the heart of a wave of intense clearances. Abdication is close.

In the immediate future an attempt to rebalance, not without nervousness, constitutes the privileged scenario. An outing for the bottom of a bevel figure would cause an increase in volatility, in terms of the nervousness known at the inlet of the graphic figure. Note that the tricolor flagship index came to fail against the low terminal of the GAP on April 04, before turning in the session, without managing to fill it. The 7,550 points are reinforced as a resistance.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

This downward scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 rating index below resistance at 7550.00 points.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics