EUR/USD: the euro awaits a new catalyst

Key graphics elements

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The European motto is stabilized after a strong impulse recorded in recent weeks. Bovers remain awaiting new catalysts, in a context where news related to the trade war are rarer. Despite the recent statements by the American secretary to the Treasury, Scott Bessent – who said that no negotiations concerning customs duties was underway – the information was confirmed by China, thus contradicting the words of the American president Donald Trump. The commercial prospects between the two powers are nevertheless worrying: container reservations between China and the United States fell 45 % in April.

On the macroeconomic level, operators continue to abandon the dollar, penalized by the persistent degradation of American indicators. For example, consumer confidence has again declined: the final index of the April stands out for 52.2, compared to 57 in March.

From a technical point of view, the euro is currently blocked below the 1.15 threshold, evolving in a horizontal consolidation phase. This lateralization should continue while awaiting the emergence of new catalysts, but also the rapprochement of the mobile averages, which were so far away.

Medium term

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).

We will keep this neutral opinion as long as the EURO Dollar parity prices (EURUSD) are positioned between the support at USD 1,1250 and the resistance to 1,1460 USD.

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