Key graphics elements
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Burkers are preparing to digest a new salvo of economic data today. On the macroeconomic front, the latest American indicators have confirmed a clear slowdown in the economic situation. Unemployed weekly registrations have jumped 18,000 to 241,000, a higher since February, while the total number of unemployed has been 1.916 million, its highest level since November 2021.
More generally, the US economy recorded a 0.3 % contraction in the first quarter of 2025 – a first since 2022. This withdrawal is mainly explained by a sharp increase in imports, precipitated before the entry into force of new customs surcharges decided by the Trump administration. This shock has dug the trade deficit, alone amputating nearly five percentage points of GDP, a record.
Household consumption, a traditional pillar of activity, increased by 1.8 %, a pace in a net slowdown compared to the previous year. In parallel, the PCE Core index, inflation indicator favored by the Fed, has remained stable in March, reaching its lowest level in five years.
The industrial sector is not spared: the job creations in the private sector fell to 62,000 in April, their lowest level since July 2024. The ISM manufacturing index continued its drop to 48.7, marking a third consecutive month of contraction, with a marked fall in production at 44, never seen since 2020.
On the geopolitical level, the markets positively welcomed Chinese statements in favor of a resumption of trade dialogue with Washington. Beijing posed the abolition of American surcharge, but this opening signal was enough to fuel the optimism of investors, while Sino-American tensions are beginning to weigh concretely on the economy.
In the euro zone, the manufacturing climate is gradually improving. The Manufacturing PMI index rose to 49.0 in April. Production is ironed in positive territory, although external demand remains low. The big economies of the block, notably Germany, France and Italy, begin a rebound without yet crossing the threshold of the 50 points.
Today, operators will scrutinize new key indicators. At 11:00 am, the consumer price index (IPC), the IPC Core, and the unemployment rate of March for the euro zone will be published. In the United States, the highly anticipated figures for job rewards in the non-agricultural sector, average hourly wages and unemployment rate (planned stable at 4.2 %) will appear at 2:30 p.m. Orders to the March industry are expected at 4:00 p.m.
From a technical point of view, the euro continues its lateralization phase. The ascending mobile averages come close to the courses and could play a dynamic support role, now the currency in contact with 1,13 or even 1,14.
Medium term
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).
We will keep this neutral opinion as long as the EURO Dollar parity prices (EURUSD) are positioned between the support at 1,1202 USD and the resistance to 1,1460 USD.
The News Bulletin 247 Council
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I have over 8 years of experience working in the news industry. I have worked as a reporter, editor, and now managing editor at 247 News Agency. I am responsible for the day-to-day operations of the news website and overseeing all of the content that is published. I also write a column for the website, covering mostly market news.
