EUR/USD: the lateral transition sets up

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The Pair of Euro / Dollar currencies continued to draw a consolidation figure, following its very strong increase in the first part of April, due to the pricing earthquake triggered by the White House.

The spot resumes serenely supported on the 20 -day mobile average (in dark blue), while the traders digest the publication, at the end of last week, of the NFP (non -Farm Payrolls) report, on the health of private employment across the Atlantic. The American economy created 177,000 jobs in April, which is higher than the consensus of 138,000, expected positions but it is less than the 185,000 in revised data in March. The unemployment rate for its part remained stable at 4.2% last month.

“The employment report is pretty good but it should end up deteriorating because the deletions of DOGE positions (the Department of Government Efficiency) are not yet taken into account and because the positive dynamics of job creations in transport and storage, probably linked to the strong but temporary increase in imports, should dry up,” warns Bastien Drut, responsible for strategy and economic studies.

For the time being, the euro is resisting temptations for profits, in particular because of the publication this morning of the “feelix”, index measuring the confidence of investors in the euro zone, remains in negative territory at -8,1, but the rebound is strong, the score being -19.5 last month. The barometer indicator has significantly exceeded expectations, at -14.9.

The eponymous research institute brought the following insights: “A month after the massive shock that rocked investors due to American customs policy and caused a free fall in the economic data feltix, the situation is calm. The investors revise their economic analyzes, sometimes significantly.

“Investors recognize the calm observed so far in the face of American customs rights. The current situation and expectations show signs of recovery. The main victims of Trump’s customs policy are the American economy and, to some extent, Chinese and Swiss economies. However, the period of uncertainty is probably not over.”

In general, the dollar is jostled in its status as hegemonic currency of world trade since the declaration of trade war by Donald Trump.

“It is urgent for the American president to find agreements before this loss of confidence affects the real economy and does not pose a risk of strong slowdown. The federal reserve, concerned about its independence, remains cautious and prefers to give itself time. The risk on growth is accompanied by a risk on prices, at least temporary, if the customs duties were applied”, for Emmanuel Auboyneau Associated at Amplegest.

Bover will follow the publication, at 4:00 p.m. on Monday, of the ISM Services index, activity barometer in services across the Atlantic.

At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against $ 1,1335 approximately.

Key graphics elements

Consolidation in triangle from 04 to 09 April is now over, the pair of currencies being violently out from the top. The energy released is important, but the ease with which the Eurusd shatters the resistances augurs for a pursuit of height. An accumulation zone between 1,1460 and 1,1674 is identified, as well as a bullish objective $ 1,1970, in the long term.

Medium term

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).

We will keep this neutral opinion as long as the EURO Dollar parity prices (EURUSD) are positioned between the support at 1,1202 USD and the resistance to 1,1460 USD.

Daily data graphics