EUR/USD: energy compression, before release

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The Pair of Euro / Dollar currencies continued to draw a consolidation figure, following its very strong increase in the first part of April, due to the pricing earthquake triggered by the White House. The dollar is currently stopping its hemorrhage while the trade war is currently focusing on the Pacific Front. But the burners naturally remain attentive to the slightest development in this file.

“If, in the aftermath of the” Liberation Day “, one could legitimately think that the customs duties would be gradually revised downwards and that there was ultimately more good than bad news to wait, the current situation seems to us slightly inverse. Indeed, Donald Trump will not return to the very principle of customs duties and it seems to us therefore difficult to adopt a more optimistic posture. Above all, the concrete effects of the trade war on the results of companies do not yet seem completely at the center of attentions, “warns Thomas GIUDICI, head of the bond management of Auris Gestion.

Burkers will have to deal with a major monetary event tomorrow. The Fed completes this Wednesday a monetary policy meeting (FOMC). The American central bank should leave its rates unchanged, anticipates Barclays with the entire financial community.

“We expect the May press release from the Monetary Policy Committee and Jerome Powell to recognize that certain measures of short -term inflation expectations based on the market and surveys have increased, and that household and business surveys indicate a drop in feeling and increased uncertainty about the prospects,” writes the British bank.

In the statistical chapter, investors learned yesterday of the “feelix”, index measuring the confidence of investors in the euro zone, which remained in negative territory at -8.1, but the rebound is strong, the score being -19.5 last month. The barometer indicator has significantly exceeded expectations, at -14.9.

The eponymous research institute brought the following insights: “A month after the massive shock that rocked investors due to American customs policy and caused a free fall in the economic data feltix, the situation is calm. The investors revise their economic analyzes, sometimes significantly.

“Investors recognize the calm observed so far in the face of American customs rights. The current situation and expectations show signs of recovery. The main victims of Trump’s customs policy are the American economy and, to some extent, Chinese and Swiss economies. However, the period of uncertainty is probably not over.”

In addition, the operators on currencies have learned of a surprise acceleration in April of activity in the tertiary sector in the United States. The ISM of services increased at 51.6 points last month, compared to 50.8 in March. This index was expected at 50.4 points, according to market consensus. However, the sub-index measuring the prices charged increased at 65.1 points against 60.9 points in March.

At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against $ 1,1340 approximately.

Key graphics elements

Consolidation in triangle from 04 to 09 April is now over, the pair of currencies being violently out from the top. The energy released is important, but the ease with which the Eurusd shatters the resistances augurs for a pursuit of height. An accumulation zone between 1,1460 and 1,1674 is identified, as well as a bullish objective $ 1,1970, in the long term.

Medium term

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).

We will keep this neutral opinion as long as the EURO Dollar parity prices (EURUSD) are positioned between the support at 1,1202 USD and the resistance to 1,1460 USD.

Daily data graphics