EUR/USD: Digestion of the FED FOMC

(BFM Stock Exchange) – This article, with free access, is produced by the research team in BFM Stock Exchange analysis and market strategy. To not miss any opportunity, consult all of the analyzes and discover our portfolios by accessing our privilege space.

The pair of Euro / dollar currencies did not react an IOTA after the decision, certainly very widely anticipated, of the Fed to maintain its main key rate (the “rent” of the dollar) in a range between 4.25% and 4.5%, while emphasizing the rise in risks on inflation and unemployment. This is the main teaching of this meeting of the Monetary Policy Council: the prudence shown by the monetary institution, in an economic environment marked by the still uncertain consequences of the intense trade war that Washington led against the rest of the world.

According to several American media, a first trade agreement should be signed between Washington and the United Kingdom during the day. And this while American and Chinese delegations must meet in Bern, Switzerland this weekend.

“The two parties announced discussions in Switzerland on Saturday and Sunday, under the direction of the secretary of the Treasury Bessent and the GREER trade representative for the United States, and the Vice-Prime Minister Lifeng for China,” said Deutsche Bank. “These would be the first substantive discussions between the two largest economies in the world since the introduction, a month ago, of 125%prohibitive customs surcharge,” added the German bank.

Currency operators also took note this week from the second round of Friedrich Merz, the leader of the CDU-CSU, as a German Chancellor. The political leader had failed to be elected in the first round. A legitimacy already a little deceased?

“The votes being secret, we will not know the official reasons for the failure of the first round this morning, but it seems to us that certain deputies of the CDU/CSU wanted to express their dissatisfaction with the flip-flop of Merz in terms of tax policy as a result of the elections,” said Carsten Brzeski responsible for macroeconomic research at ING.

To be continued, at the causage agenda this Thursday, the decision of the Bank of England at 1:00 p.m. and the level of weekly registration for unemployment benefits in the United States at 2:30 p.m.

At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against $ 1,1290 approximately.

Key graphics elements

Consolidation in triangle from 04 to 09 April is now over, the pair of currencies being violently out from the top. The energy released is important, but the ease with which the Eurusd shatters the resistances augurs for a pursuit of height. An accumulation zone between 1,1460 and 1,1674 is identified, as well as a bullish objective $ 1,1970, in the long term.

Medium term

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).

We will keep this neutral opinion as long as the EURO Dollar parity prices (EURUSD) are positioned between the support at 1,1202 USD and the resistance to 1,1460 USD.

Daily data graphics