CAC 40: The 50 -day mobile average is tested

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The CAC 40 managed to gain 0.89% Thursday, in discreet volumes due to the holiday of May 08, and the absence, mechanically, of many operators. Investors appreciated the trade agreement signed between London and Washington, while preliminary discussions between American and Chinese delegations are looming in Bern, Switzerland. What to distance, in the rooms of the markets, the cataclysmic feeling which prevailed in the aftermath of the “Liberation Day”. Recall that the VIX, the index of fear, has gradually cooled up to rating 22.48 points at the last rating of the S & P500. It was worth 52.33 on April 9.

Donald Trump announced on Thursday a “complete and global agreement” between the United States and the United Kingdom, on its Truth Social network. He will be the first in a “long series”. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer praised on Thursday “a historic day”, referring to the customs duties agreement between Washington and London and on the anniversary of the Allies’ victory in 1945. The contours of this agreement must still be specified even if some measures have been announced.

The importation of British steel products in the United States will no longer be subject to customs duties, against a previous taxation of 25%. Taxes targeting car exports will be reduced to 10% up to 100,000 vehicles per year, Downing Street said in a statement “which will allow Jaguar Land Rover to save hundreds of millions per year,” said the British government.

In the statistical chapter “RAS” concerning the new weekly registrations for unemployment benefits in the United States, at 228,000, very close to the past week, and expectations.

On the values ​​side, automotive files were well oriented after the European Parliament’s decision to lighten CO2 emissions for manufacturers and the announcement of customs duties reduced for imports of British vehicles in the United States. Strong increase in CAC 40, Stellantis jumped 5.1% and Renault by 2.3%. The European values ​​of semiconductors were also in sight after an article by Bloomberg which indicated that the Trump administration would reflect on softening export restrictions on fleas. On the Paris Stock Exchange, Stmicroelectronics resumed 1.8%, Soitec 2.2%and X-FAB 3.25%. Solvay, on the other hand, dropped 9.5%, after having tightened its profitability target and reduced its investment envelope for 2025.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares finished the session on Thursday increasing, however at a distance from their highest session, like the Dow Jones (+0.62%) and the Nasdaq Composite (+1.07%). The S & P500, reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, nibbled 0.58% to 5,663 points.

A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,1240. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 60.30. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.36%. As for the Vix, it was worth 23.48 at the last fence of the S&P500.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Friday, to follow in priority the monthly Italian industrial production at 10:00 am, as well as numerous interventions of Fed members, throughout the day.

Key graphics elements

The opening gap, ample on Friday 02 May, showed a first shortness of breath of the catch -up movement initiated on April 08. From now on, the index is under strength of resistance, materialized, among other things by another GAP, downside this one: that of Thursday, April 03, the beginning of the vivid correction linked to the entry into force of prohibitive customs rights. This level is doubled from the mobile average at 50 days (in orange), which is a graphic test.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we mentioned, our opinion is positive on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

This bullish scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 index rating above the support at 17125.00 points.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics