EUR/USD: the greenback

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After its strong progression on Monday, in the wake of a large customs news, the dollar “consolidated” already on Tuesday, with the approach of highly anticipated figures on American inflation.

Recall that this weekend in Switzerland, Chinese and American delegations met, for preliminary discussions with a view to placing the customs duties that Washington and Beijing are imposed. Results: The punitive prices imposed by the two superpowers will be suspended for a period of 3 months. Scott Bessent told him to journalists that Washington would decrease 115 percentage points with customs surcharges hitting China to fall to 30%, AFP reports. China, it would drop from 125% to 10%, according to the indications of the American administration.

So certainly this moratorium sort of the current crisis, but the basic problems persist. Namely, those of the still quantifiable consequences of an in -depth redefinition of the tacit rules of global trade. This advance will not erase the concept of trade war on both sides of the Pacific. Trump is doing the Trump. After brutalized, he renegotiates everything. As he would with a supplier as a business manager … The ruthless world of the company, in real estate in this case, remains in its DNA it must be remembered.

“If investors have naturally welcomed these first advances, we can only see the precipitation with which the United States announces still imprecise agreements (and others which should follow), whose contours remain to be negotiated, which in our views, the growing will of the Trump administration to reverse customs duties, in order to mitigate the potentially negative effects on growth and inflation.” Thomas GIUDICI, head of bond management, Auris Gestion.

“Concerning the compromise found between London and Washington, although it remains relatively anecdotal taking into account the amounts at stake, it nevertheless offers readability on what could be with other” friends “countries (if the United States still have): a 10% floor rate and orders of American goods (the British airline Iag Iag would place $ 10 billion Boeing) “, adds the manager in asset management.

In the statistical chapter, good news for the ZEW index of trust in the first economy in the euro zone, which jumped at 25.2. “The expectations of expectations are improving. The ZEW indicator provides for a significant improvement in May 2025 and compensates for part of the losses observed during the April investigation. With the arrival of a new government, advances in the payment of tariff disputes and stabilization of inflation, optimism has strengthened,” comments the president of ZEW, Professor Achim Wambach.

The market took note last week from the election in the second round of Friedrich Merz, the leader of the CDU-CSU, as a German Chancellor. The political leader had failed to be elected in the first round.

To follow, therefore, at 2:30 p.m., consumer prices in the United States for the month of April. Excluding food and energy, prices are expected to increase 0.3%.

At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against $ 1,1100 approximately.

Key graphics elements

The euro / dollar is currently in the phase of an important graphic test: that of the mobile average at 50 days (in orange), the last resumption of support dating from the sweater February 28. A rupture of this trend curve would release additional sales energy.

Medium term

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).

We will keep this neutral opinion as long as the EURO Dollar parity prices (EURUSD) are positioned between the support at USD 1,1012 and the resistance to 1,1460 USD.

Daily data graphics