CAC 40: the

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Yesterday Wednesday, the Parisian market experienced a transitional session, consolidating (-0.47%) The gains garnered over the first two days of the week on the background of Sino-American trade tensions.

“Trade negotiations between the United States and China this weekend led to a much greater reduction than expected of bilateral prices. Indeed, for 90 days, reciprocal ‘customs’ duties go from 145% to 30% for American imports from China and from 125% to 10% for American exports to China,” said Xavier Chapard, strategist LBPAM.

“We anticipate a reduction to 60%, and Trump had mentioned 80% before the weekend. It is positive because it confirms that the management is generally in de-escalation, that the peak of uncertainty has probably passed and that the risk of overall recession decreases clearly,” he adds.

But, since then, the market lacks catalyst to go up more. Because these advances, although concrete, do not regulate the substance of the question.

Please note, warns Thomas GIUDICI, head of bond management of Auris Gestion. “After the disappointment of the” Liberation Day “, the financial markets very (too much?) Quickly integrated an outcome favorable to the bilateral negotiations to come on customs duties.”

“”Donald Trump will not come back to the very principle of customs duties And it therefore seems difficult to adopt a more optimistic posture than that already integrated by the markets. Above all, the concrete effects of the trade war on the results of companies do not yet seem completely at the center of attentions. “

This Thursday is the session of the week not to be missed, since it concentrates a salvo of major American indicators. This Thursday will indeed concentrate most of the publications of the week, apart from the inflation figures made public yesterday. We will therefore have to treat, within this hearty menu, production prices, retail sales, weekly registrations for unemployment benefits, the manufacturing indices Empire State and Philly Fed, the monthly report on industry, all embellished with a J Powell speech.

The markets therefore learned of consumer prices in the United States on Tuesday, up 0.2% excluding food and energy in April, against expectations at +0.3%. This is the lowest pace since February 2021.

“American inflation was lower than forecasts in April. The threat of prices increased by customs duties moving away from recent agreements and advanced indicators of the housing sector indicating a slowdown in housing costs, the Federal Reserve will continue to envisage interest rates later in the year,” wrote Ing economists.

“The report on inflation (ICC) of April does not yet show an impact on customs duties decided by the new Trump administration. This should nevertheless materialize on the next, for example with the increase in the price of cars, and it is this prospect that makes the American Federal Reserve (Fed) will remain cautious”, advances, Bastien Drut, responsible for strategy and economic studies in CPRAM.

On the values ​​side, luxury was particularly concerned with the breathing of the market despite the better results than expected of the British group Burberry, which increases 17% in London. Kering gave 3.1%, LVMH sold 2.2% after progressing well in recent days with signs of relaxation on the customs ground between the United States and China. Bouygues (+2.7%) fence at the top of the CAC 40 after having delivered results further fired by improving the margins of Equans. Excluding CAC 40, Alstom was heavily punished (-17.3%) for having delivered disappointing cash targets.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares finished in dispersed order, the Dow Jones contracting by 0.21% and the composite Nasdaq managing to graze 0.72%. The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, ended in balance near the 5,900 points.

A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,1200. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 61.40. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.53%. As for the Vix, it was worth 18.62 at the last fence of the S&P500.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Thursday, to follow at 2:30 p.m. production prices, retail sales, weekly registrations for unemployment benefits, the manufacturing indices Empire State and Philly Fed, as well as the monthly report on industry at 3:15 p.m.

Key graphics elements

The opening gap, ample on Friday 02 May, showed a first shortness of breath of the catch -up movement initiated on April 08. From now on, the index is under strength of resistance, materialized, among other things by another GAP, downside this one: that of Thursday, April 03, the beginning of the vivid correction linked to the entry into force of prohibitive customs rights. This level is doubled from the mobile average at 50 days (in orange), which is a graphic test. This graphic test is currently in the process of being successful, but the filling of another GAP, that of March 31, invites you to restraint.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

This downward scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 rating index below resistance at 7895.00 points.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics