(BFM Stock Exchange) – The wholesale prices are soaring at historical levels, due to a contraction of the American cattle from the lowest for over 70 years.

In the United States, the barbecue or “BBQ” is an institution that is an integral part of the country’s culture. It is also on the other side of the Atlantic that the famous Weber brand, a devices specialist to achieve grilled meats over 70 years ago.

If Weber left the American rating at the end of 2022 after a takeover and a disappointing stock market, the beef is experiencing a radically different trajectory like several other raw materials listed on the markets such as coffee or cocoa.

Bad timing

The term contract on living cattle for delivery in June increased by 11% since the start of the year, according to CME data, the operator of the Chicago Stock Exchange, where a number of agricultural products (soy, wheat, pork, etc …) over one year is listed, the increase is close to 20%.

“The long-term contracts on living cattle for delivery in June have reached a historic point in the United States, just before the barbecue season,” notes Christopher Dembik, investment strategy advisor at Pictet AM.

“Beef in the United States is the second most eaten meat after the chicken. Above all, it is soon the barbecue season and especially in the United States,” notes John Plassard, director of investments at Mirabaud on the News Bulletin 247 antenna.

A reduction in the available livestock

Why do the long-term contracts on living cattle camp at historically high levels? This movement is explained by fears about the offer.

Sunday, May 11, the United States decided to suspend imports of cattle from Mexico for 15 days due to a flesh eater parasite, commonly known as “meat fly”. South Mexico faces important cases of Lucilie Bouchère, whose larvae attack the wounds of animals and humans.

“It is my duty to take all measures to protect the breeding industry in the United States from this devastating parasite,” said US Minister of Agriculture Brooke Rollins.

Living livestock prices “are on fire” after this decision, told Reuters Dan Norcini, an independent analyst.

However, the United States generally imports more than a million cattle per year from Mexico.

The temporary suspension occurs while “the level of the world livestock has been the lowest for 70 years and it is the consequence of drought episodes that have reduced the available pastures”, explains, moreover, John Plassard.

A low point in 2025

Due to relatively long reproduction and development cycles for this type of meat, a real change in trend appears unlikely.

These cycles are measured in years for a cattle, in months for a pork and in weeks for a chicken, recalls the American department of agriculture. “The number of cattle, their price and the production of beefs tend to follow a cycle which lasts approximately 10 years, but which can vary from 8 to 12 years depending on factors such as drought or the cost of food,” he explains.

The department warns that stocks in cattle in the United States will reach a low point in 2025, with a total stock of 86 million heads, which would constitute the lowest stock of cattle since 1951.

“It means that it is unlikely that the prices of the beef drop significantly for several years. This inflation on one of the foods most eaten by the Americans created a situation of tension which should push President Donald Trump to act on the import of meat, especially Latin America,” said John Plassard.

The American department anticipated a weakness of the offer in 2026, which should further push prices upwards, before descending in 2031 and then initiating a new increase until 2034, according to its forecasts.

For American households, the bill could salty. This increase “risks impacting the margins of large fast food chains which will not fail to repercuss the increase in prices on the consumer”, warns Christopher Dembik.