EUR/USD: Moody’s does not really change the dollar trajectory

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The rebound in the Euro initiated on Monday long, as if the lowering of the American sovereign note by Moody’s was a fact already integrated by the foreign exchange market.

The maximum note, “Standard & Poor’s had withdrawn it in 2011,” followed “by Fitch in 2023. In addition, the arguments put forward by Moody’s to justify this degradation are already relatively well anchored in the heads of investors: flight of debt, digging budget deficits and weighing down the cost of debt”, for Thomas GIUDICI d’Auris Gestion.

The rating agency has deprived the American debt of its precious note AAA to demo it to AA1 with a stable perspective.

“Above all, American credit indicators are now significantly deviating from those of the countries still rated AAA by the agency. As an example, the load of interest – including federal debt, that of states and local authorities – represented 12 % of American public revenues in 2024, against only 1.6 % for the average of other countries benefiting from the supreme note”. . Finally, the general movement of the pair of currencies, favorable to the euro since the declaration of trade war by Donald Trump, remains bruise above the mobile average at 50 days (in orange), without significant acceleration.

“Any guarded proportion, the case of the United States recalls that of France at the end of last year: little, if not, impact on the short-term markets but an additional alert on the structural degradation of public finances, that it will be necessary to end up treating. This observation is all the more worrying as the current situation does not play in favor of a rapid recovery: growth slows down, what will weigh on tax revenue, and Uncertainties on customs duties reinforce pressures on the economy, “continued the active management decision maker.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Tuesday, to follow the consumer confidence index in the euro zone at 4:00 p.m. on Tuesday. Yesterday consumer prices, excluding food, alcohol and tobacco energy, were confirmed up 2.7% at an annualized rate for the month of April in the euro zone. Thursday, the day will be dense for the trades with the “flash” data of the PMI barometers for the current month, on both sides of the Atlantic.

At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against $ 1.1245 approximately.

Key graphics elements

The euro / dollar is currently in the phase of an important graphic test: that of the mobile average at 50 days (in orange), the last resumption of support dating from the sweater February 28. A rupture of this trend curve would release additional sales energy. In the immediate future, indecision is noted graphically by a series of stars doji.

Medium term

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).

We will keep this neutral opinion as long as the EURO Dollar parity prices (EURUSD) are positioned between the support at USD 1,1012 and the resistance to 1,1460 USD.

Daily data graphics