(The Insurer) – Nearly 60% of exporting companies in the main global economies expect negative consequences on their exchanges of customs duties announced by the United States on April 2, day of the “Liberation Day”, according to the latest annual study by Allianz Trade.
The survey, conducted with nine key countries representing 60% of the global gross domestic product (GDP), reveals that 45% of exporting companies expect a drop in their export turnover after the announcement of these customs rights.
In detail, positive forecasts on global exports increased from 80% to 40%, 42% of companies anticipating even a drop in their export turnover between 2% and 10%, against only 5% before the announcements of April 2.
In France, if 84% of respondents expected an increase in their export turnover before April 2, they were only 48% after the “Liberation Day”.
“Contrary to the optimism that reigned before the wave of customs duties of April 2, this year’s Global Survey ‘confirms what we observe in all markets: uncertainty and fragmentation become structural,” said Aylin Somersan Coqui, President and CEO of Allianz Trade.
“Despite the bilateral agreements recently concluded with the United Kingdom and China, we estimate that global export losses will reach $ 305 billion in 2025,” she added.
The survey indicates that exporting companies are focusing on the diversification of supply chains and their customer base to mitigate their risks.
China and Singapore appear to be the countries most affected by customs duties, 82% and 55% of respondents anticipating a drop in export turnover respectively, while Latin America, to which Chinese and European companies are turning to access the United States, is pulling out of the game.
Also according to the survey and despite an agreement that would bring back the average rate of American customs duties on Chinese imports to 39%, respondents expect a continuous reduction in trade between the two countries.
The intention of American companies to export to China has decreased by half to reach 10% while Chinese companies’ expectations in terms of export to North America have dropped from 15% to 3%.
( Bertrand de Meyer, edited by Augustin Turpin)
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