EUR/USD: TRUMP SCORNS more the greenback

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Bovers are increasingly wondering about the future of the dollar as a hegemonic currency of world trade, in full trade war that Trump leads against his “partners” … On the Washington – Brussels front, threats and suspens are linked, as brutal as it is disconcerting, like the impetuous tenant of the White House.

As a reminder, Trump threatened the EU on customs taxes on Friday of 50% on June 1, compared to 10% today. The American president justifies this announcement by the difficulty of commercial negotiations with Europe.

“It is very difficult to deal with the EU, which was created in the first place to take advantage of the United States from a commercial point of view. (…) Our discussions are going nowhere. Under these conditions I recommend that I impose 50% customs duties on the EU, from June 1. There are no customs duties on products manufactured in the United States,” he wrote on his Truth Social platform.

Customs duties applied to European products currently amounted to 12.5% ​​on average, 2.5% corresponding to the level before Donald Trump’s return to the White House, to which have been added 10% since early April and the announcement of his so -called “reciprocal” customs duties. The White House initially planned to tax European products up to 20%, before announcing a 90-day break on customs duties beyond 10%, the time to let the negotiations arrive at their end.

Trump repelled his ultimatum yesterday by postponing the deadline for commercial negotiations on July 9. Ursuala von der Leyen called the White House tenant, to request a delay in order to reach a constructive agreement. “Europe is ready to advance negotiations quickly and decisively. To achieve a good agreement, we will need time until July 9,” said the president of the European executive on X.

This decision makes it possible to “temporarily mitigate the escalation of trade tensions”, observes Naeem Aslam of Zaye Capital. The market specialist also considers that Donald Trump and Ursula Von Der Leyen’s statements support market optimism because they report “a desire to engage in serious negotiations”.

“However, the feeling of investors remains cautious due to the unpredictable nature of trade policies and the risk of future volatility,” he adds.

In any case, the dollar remains on a slippery slope in the face of the euro, the role of a risk marker for risk is less readable in these market circumstances.

To follow a speech by C. Lagarde, president of the ECB, at a conference at the Hertie School, in Berlin. The agenda will clear up clearly tomorrow with the orders of lasting goods in the United States and the sacrosanct consumer confidence index (Conference Board) awaited slightly increased at 87.1.

At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against $ 1,1380 approximately.

Key graphics elements

The pair of currencies currently succeeds in the highly important graphic test of the mobile average at 50 days (in orange). A breath of breath is necessary before the conquest of new highests. That is to say the formation of several support on this trend curve.

Medium term

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).

We will keep this neutral opinion as long as the EURO Dollar parity prices (EURUSD) are positioned between the support at 1,1202 USD and the resistance to 1,1460 USD.

Daily data graphics