CAC 40: Welcome reflux of VIX

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Flat encephalogram for the CAC 40 Tuesday, which relied on a convincing start of the week at Wall Street to finish at the almost perfect balance at 7,826 points, in a market that remains very attentive to the slightest development in the episode of the trade war led by Trump against Brussels. Recall that after having threatened to apply the additional 50% customs duties to the European Union on June 1, the American president decided to extend the stay granted to Europe until July 9.

In addition to the Atlantic, the debates on shares resumed after a weekend made prolonged by the Memorial Day. The operators have been able to rely on good macroeconomic signals, in particular the orders of lasting goods and the consumer confidence index (Conference Board), both significantly above expectations.

“Consumer confidence has improved in May after five consecutive months of decrease,” said Stéphanie Guichard, the world’s leading economist, in the Conference Board.

“The rebound was already visible before the Sino-American trade agreement of May 12, but has accelerated later. The monthly improvement is largely due to the expectations of consumers, the three components of the expectations of expectations-economic conditions, employment prospects and future income-having progressed compared to their lower April. Consumers were less pessimistic about Next six months and have found their optimism about future income prospects.

On the values ​​side, Thales took 1.9% and affected a new history higher at 267.4 euros. Since the beginning of the year, the defense group and technologies have taken 92.72%, the highest increase in CAC 40. excluding CAC 40, Elis won 2.1% after delivering her medium -term ambitions and presented her strategic roadmap.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares ended in the lively Tuesday session, like the Dow Jones (+1.78%) but especially the Nasdaq Composite (+2.47%). The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, exceeded 2% increase, at 5,921 points.

A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,1310. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 60.90. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.47%. As for the Vix, it was worth 18.96 at the last fence of the S&P500.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Wednesday, to follow the manufacturing index of the Fed de Richmond at 4:00 p.m. on Wednesday as well as the Fed minutes at 8:00 p.m.

Key graphics elements

The gradual cap under the 7,900 points has suddenly turned into intense volatility. In one session Friday, May 23, the Parisian flagship index broke the Dynamics of the spring rally by breaking the mobile average at 20 days (in dark blue), the difference compared to the mobile average at 50 days (in orange) has taken up strongly.

The 7,900 points are reinforced in their graphic resistance status.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

This downward scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 rating index below resistance at 7900.00 points.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics