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The CAC 40 grabbed 0.34% to 7,763 points on Tuesday, in a market which continues to question the outcome of the trade war waged by Trump against the rest of the world. The new reassuring came from inflation in the euro zone: the first estimates of inflation in the euro zone for the month of May, stand out up 2.3% annual, excluding food, energy, alcohol and tobacco. This indicator should strengthen the thesis of a new drop in rates of the European Central Bank (ECB), at its meeting on Thursday. “The ECB is expected to lower its rates again this Thursday, in a context of low growth and slowdown in inflation,” said Felix Feather, an economist at Aberdeen.
“It is likely that this decrease is not the last in the cycle, because monetary officials will no doubt have to support the economy once the complete effects of changes in American customs policy has been felt,” he adds.
On the commercial front; Donald Trump had accused his “partner” Friday [la Chine] not to respect “his agreement”. The Washington Brussels front is also monitored like milk on fire. “It is likely that Europe is again the target of the White House in the coming days. This is likely to stir up volatility on the stock market and to encourage institutionalists to alleviate their positions on actions – a phenomenon which is usual before summer but which could be exacerbated this year because of protectionism,” said Christopher Dembik, of Pictet AM.
In the statistical chapter, the new job offers (JOLTS) exceeded expectations, reassuring the financial community before the publication of the NFP (non -Farm Payrolls) report on Friday. Until then, operators will take note of the results of the ADP (Automatic Data Processing) survey on Wednesday and weekly registrations for unemployment benefits on Thursday.
On the values ​​side, Elis sold 1.2%, penalized by the sale of a block of shares of 2.9% of the capital on the part of Bpifrance. However, the withdrawal is limited, because in parallel Jefferies began monitoring value with purchase advice. Wavestone, on the other hand, jumped 8.6% after delivering reassuring perspectives for its exercise 2025-2026. Significant technical reactions were to be noted on fleas and automobile equipment manufacturers, like OptMobility (+2.63%), Stmicro (+3.39%) or Soitec (+4.10%).
On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares won a few points on Tuesday, like the Dow Jones (+0.51%) and the Nasdaq Composite (+0.81%). The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, won 0.58% to get closer to 6,000 symbolic points at 5,970 points.
A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,1360. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 62.80. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.45%. As for the Vix, it was worth 17.69 at the last fence of the S&P500.
At the macroeconomic agenda this Wednesday, to follow the ADP report on American employment at 2:15 p.m. on Wednesday and the ISM activity barometer in services at 4:00 p.m.
Key graphics elements
The gradual cap under the 7,900 points has suddenly turned into intense volatility. In one session Friday, May 23, the Parisian flagship index broke the Dynamics of the spring rally by breaking the mobile average at 20 days (in dark blue), the difference compared to the mobile average at 50 days (in orange) has taken up strongly.
The 7,900 points are reinforced in their status of graphic resistance, even though the dynamics of the relative force index invite caution. Indeed the RSI (relative Strenght Index) has adopted a persistent lower bias since May 13.
FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
We will take care to note that a crossing of the 7900.00 points would revive the tension to the purchase. While a break in the 7690.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.
The News Bulletin 247 Council
Hourly data graphics
Daily data graphics
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