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A market atmosphere that is still so strange, with an end of romance between Trump and Musk, a new drop in rates in the much -awaited euro zone, and a timid contact of contact between Washington and Beijing about customs duties. It is under the sign of American employment that will end this week marked by nervousness, with the long -awaited publication of the NFP report.
It’s over! This story of friendship was short between the stormy tenant of the White House and the tech entrepreneur lunar. Bird’s names rushed yesterday between the two colorful characters on social networks, the first threatening the second to freeze government contracts with the companies of the second, and the second threatening the first to stop supplying the ISS and calling on the Americans to “kill the law”, that is to say to get up against the major budgetary law (BBB). The Tesla action has toleged, ending the free fall session of more than 14%.
Yesterday the European Central Bank, as it was very widely waited, lowered its main key rate of 25 base points, while leaving the idea of ​​a break up in the monetary loosening process. “Christine Lagarde suggested that a chapter ended and that another was going to begin. She indicates that with this drop in rate, the ECB is ‘close to finishing a shock management cycle: Covid, Ukraine, Inflation …'”, explains Juliette Cohen, strategist at CPram.
“Unless trade tensions come back in force, whether at the end of the current break of 90 days or at another time, we think that the ECB will stick to a wait -and -see approach during the summer. It will take a little more time to understand if the current disinflationist risks are simply punctual or if they report a wider trend,” add the Ing economists.
This news rich in almost overshadowed the essential: a telephone interview between Trump and Xi on the bilateral customs negotiations between the two superpowers. A telephone interview deemed “very positive”, reported Trump with all the richness of his vocabulary, on his social network Truth Social.
In the statistical chapter, weekly registrations for unemployment benefits were raised, a little higher than expectations, at 247,000 new units, on the eve of the publication of the NFP (non -Farm Payrolls) report, monthly verdict on employment health across the Atlantic. The main consensus of the report are stabilization of the unemployment rate at 4.2% of the active population, of positions of posts in the private sector in the order of 127,000, and an average wages increase of 0.3%.
As for values, Pernod Ricard fell by more than 5% penalized by the American Brown-Forman, another group of spirits, which drops by 16% on the New York Stock Exchange in reaction to the announcement of dull forecasts for its current exercise. Rémy Cointreau fell 3.2%. Believe took 10.5%, the course is wedging on the public withdrawal offer announced by the consortium holding more than 95% of the capital. Forvia (-3.15%) and Valeo (-2.95%) accused sharp drops, in this very very volatile automotive equipment sector.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares finished the Red Thursday session, like the Dow Jones (-0.25%) and the Nasdaq Composite (-0.83%). The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, contracted from 0.18% to 5,939 points.
A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,1430. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 62.50. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.39%. As for the Vix, it was worth 18.48 at the last fence of the S&P500.
At the macroeconomic agenda this Friday, to follow the NFP report on American employment (May report) at 2:30 p.m.
Key graphics elements
The gradual cap under the 7,900 points has suddenly turned into intense volatility. In one session Friday, May 23, the Parisian flagship index broke the Dynamics of the spring rally by breaking the mobile average at 20 days (in dark blue), the difference compared to the mobile average at 50 days (in orange) has taken up strongly.
The 7,900 points are reinforced in their status of graphic resistance, even though the dynamics of the relative force index invite caution. Indeed the RSI (Relative Strenght Index) Adopt a persistent lowering bias since May 13.
FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
This downward scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 rating index below resistance at 7900.00 points.
The News Bulletin 247 Council
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