EUR/USD: maintenance above $ 1,1460, geopolitics in the background

(BFM Stock Exchange) – This article, with free access, is produced by the research team in BFM Stock Exchange analysis and market strategy. To not miss any opportunity, consult all of the analyzes and discover our portfolios by accessing our privilege space.

The euro / dollar consolidated above the $ 1,1,1460, a major technical and graphic level which gave in to the heart of last week, after a trade agreement announced between China and the United States, with the main challenge, and as lever customs duties. An agreement which fixes a general framework which has not, however, strengthened the appetite for the risk on the financial markets. And all the more so as the conflagration of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has since caused tension in the markets of the markets.

Israel attacked Iran on Friday to Friday to Friday, affecting military sites and nuclear installations. On the fourth day of the conflict, the Israeli army said early on Monday that new missiles from Iran towards Israel had been detected. Since Friday, at least 224 dead have been identified in Iran, against at least ten people killed in Israel.

Saturday and Sunday, the offensives of the two countries continued. On Saturday, Tel Aviv attacked the South Pars gas deposit in southern Iran. It is the largest gas reserve in the world, shared between Iran and Qatar.

This bombing shows that Israel does not hesitate to target Iran’s energy infrastructure. According to Bloomberg who quotes the Israeli agency Tasnim, this attack, which targeted section 14 of the gas field, forced the closure of a production platform on the gas field.

“The coming days will tell us at what risks we are going to be confronted, but they are clearly negative for the world economy,” said Sébastien Paris Horvitz, of LBPAM. “We can only fear an escalation. In fact, the scholarships react negatively (…) and the price of oil is flying away, reaching a price around $ 75 a barrel (Brent), have been at the highest level since the start of the year,” continues the economist.

“The Middle East powder maker has just blowed up the world market cover (…) This time, the flames are no longer metaphorical,” comments Stephen Innes, of SPI AM. The expert fears that a closure of the Ormuz Strait, by which 21% of world oil consumption, aggravates the situation.

“If the Strait of Ormuz, which represents 20 % of the world’s world flows, is in the radius of the explosion, you can add $ 15 per barrel,” he said.

The geopolitical situation in the Middle East obscured the main statistical figure on Friday, namely the preliminary data of the consumer confidence index (U-Mich), emerged significantly above expectations, at 60.5. At the macroeconomic agenda this Monday, to follow the manufacturing index of the Fed de NY at 2:30 p.m. Note the diplomatic journey of E Macron yesterday to Greenland, aimed at asserting the EU opposition to the American annexed inclinations. And this just before G7 in Canada. Note at the causage agenda tomorrow, at 2:30 p.m., retail sales in the United States, an essential measure of consumption which as a reminder, remains structurally the main engine of national wealth creation across the Atlantic.

At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against $ 1,1575 approximately.

Key graphics elements

Thursday the spot freed from the grip of a resistance zone at $ 1,1460, a zone which is already early tested, in the form of a sweater This Friday. The absence of upward expansion after the crossing of the $ 1,1460 is doubted about the capacity of the spot to continue in the coming weeks its substantive ascending movement. The test of the mobile average at 50 days (in orange) will therefore be essential.

Medium term

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).

We will keep this neutral opinion as long as the courses of Euro Dollar parity (EURUSD) are positioned between the support at 1,1460 USD and the resistance to 1,1674 USD.

Daily data graphics