CAC 40: more than limited geopolitical impact

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Resilient after a weekend of the situation of the situation in the Middle East, the CAC managed to gain 0.75% at 7,742 points, in a market dominated by, in addition to geopolitics, the “transfer” of the boss of Renault (Luca de Meo) to the management of Kering. So much so that we found at two ends of the Renault (-8.69%) and Kering (+11.76%).

Investors continue to monitor the situation on fire the situation in the Middle East, which has been won this weekend, between Israel and Iran. Investors keep their composure, and hope that this conflict does not extend to the whole region.

Saturday and Sunday, the offensives of the two countries continued. On Saturday, Tel Aviv attacked the South Pars gas deposit in southern Iran. It is the largest gas reserve in the world, shared between Iran and Qatar.

This bombing shows that Israel does not hesitate to target Iran’s energy infrastructure. According to Bloomberg who quotes the Israeli agency Tasnim, this attack, which targeted section 14 of the gas field, forced the closure of a production platform on the gas field.

“By hitting Iranian infrastructure dedicated to the development of its nuclear program as well as military capacities, Israel has led the most important offensive against the Islamic Republic since the war against its Iraqi neighbor in the 80s. These operations, which have already been extended over three days with material and human damage superior to all that had been observed, seem to be. Almost target of revolution guards and military infrastructure, avoiding major oil or policies, which suggests a targeted pressure strategy rather than a regime reversal objective, “comments Jeoffrey Ouafqa, director of management of Auris Gestion.

In the statistical chapter, the operators became aware of a collapse of the manufacturing index of the NY Fed (Empire State Index) at -16.0.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares finished the first session of the week in the green, like the Dow Jones (+0.75%) and the Nasdaq Composite (+1.52%). The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, gained 0.94% to 33 points above the symbolic threshold of the 6,000.

A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,1560. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 70.60. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.44%. As for the Vix, it was worth 19.11 at the last fence of the S&P500.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Tuesday, to follow retail sales in the United States at 2:30 p.m. An essential measure of consumption which as a reminder, remains structurally the main engine of national wealth creation across the Atlantic.

Key graphics elements

The gradual cap under the 7,900 points has suddenly turned into intense volatility. In one session Friday, May 23, the Parisian flagship index broke the Dynamics of the spring rally by breaking the mobile average at 20 days (in dark blue), the difference compared to the mobile average at 50 days (in orange) has taken up strongly.

The 7,900 points are reinforced in their status of graphic resistance, even though the dynamics of the relative force index invite caution. Indeed the RSI (Relative Strenght Index) Adopt a persistent lowering bias since May 13. The tricolor flagship index is now in a glaring situation of incapacity for creations of new heights.

First alert Thursday, June 12 with a metal gap in session. Second the next day with a new gap, filled in the session too.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

We will take care to note that a crossing of the 7810.00 points would revive the tension to the purchase. While a break in the 7700.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics